Argentina. Primera Nacional
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Patronato — 37%
Pure model vs market (1 · Patronato): model 40% · market 37% Δ +3 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Patronato 36.9%, draw 32.6%, win Quilmes 30.5%. Model favourite — Patronato.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.59 62.9% |
| yes | 2.32 43.1% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.37 73.0% | 1.39 71.9% |
| 1x | 1.32 75.8% | 1.30 76.9% |
| x2 | 1.42 70.4% | 1.49 67.1% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.49 28.7% | |
| X | 1.83 54.6% |
| 4.06 24.6% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.65 60.6% |
| Over 1 | 2.71 36.9% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.10 47.6% |
| Under 1 | 1.41 70.9% |
Patronato
Midlend
Atletiko Atlanta
Khimnasiya i Tiro
San-Martin Tukuman
Atletiko Rafaela
Kolekhiales
Midlend
Atletiko Atlanta
Full head-to-head historyPatronato - Quilmes
The Patronato - Quilmes breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
