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31.07.2026 16:30 UTC
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31.07.2026 16:30 UTC
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Argentina. Primera Nacional
San Martin San Juan - Atletico de Rafaela
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🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 San Martin San Juan — 53%
Pure model vs market (1 · San Martin San Juan): model 36% · market 54% Δ −18 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win San Martin San Juan 53.3%, draw 29.6%, win Atletico de Rafaela 17.2%. Model favourite — San Martin San Juan.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Xdraw (odds3.12)
Score 1:1
confidence 50%
- • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 32% on the line (odds 3.12)
- • edge over the line +18 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction San Martin San Juan - Atletico de Rafaela July 31, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: San Martin San Juan. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.73 / X 3.16 / 2 6.00
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.1%
1
54.5%
X
29.8%
2
15.7%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Match center
San Martin San Juan - Atletico de Rafaela
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
San Martin San Juan
54.4%
53.3%
market and model agree
Draw
29.8%
29.6%
draw risk
Atletico de Rafaela
15.8%
17.2%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
53.3% / 29.6% / 17.2%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,298 / 1,448
San Martin San Juan / Atletico de Rafaela
RD
186 / 195
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
927-1,669 / 1,058-1,838
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
5.83
market consensus · no value · model 17.2%
X
3.12
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.71
market consensus · no value · model 53.3%
Double chance
12
1.31
market consensus · no value · model 70.4%
1X
1.10
market consensus · no value · model 82.8%
X2
2.00
market consensus · no value · model 46.7%
Handicap
2 +0.5
2.07
market consensus · line only
2 +1
1.49
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.68
market consensus · line only
1 -1
2.47
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.38
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.96
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.38 72.5% |
| yes | 2.96 33.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.30 76.9% | 1.32 75.8% |
| 1x | 1.09 91.7% | 1.10 90.9% |
| x2 | 1.99 50.3% | 2.00 50.0% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.42 41.3% | |
| X | 1.84 54.4% |
| 8.10 12.4% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 2.81 35.6% |
| Under 1 | 1.38 72.5% |
Match center
San Martin San Juan
L
L
L
L
L
San Martin San Juan
1:2
Agropekuario
Agropekuario
San Martin San Juan
1:2
Tristan Suares
Tristan Suares
San Martin San Juan
0:1
Chakarita Khuniors
Chakarita Khuniors
San Martin San Juan
1:2
Khimnasiya Khukhuy
Khimnasiya Khukhuy
San Martin San Juan
1:2
Temperley
Temperley
0
Wins
0
Draws
5
Losses
0.8
Scored
1.8
Conceded
0
Points
Atletico de Rafaela
W
L
L
D
W
Atletico de Rafaela
1:0
Nueva Chikago
Nueva Chikago
Atletico de Rafaela
0:2
Temperley
Temperley
Atletico de Rafaela
1:3
Deportivo Maypu
Deportivo Maypu
Atletico de Rafaela
0:0
Patronato
Patronato
Atletico de Rafaela
1:0
Kolekhiales
Kolekhiales
2
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
0.6
Scored
1.0
Conceded
7
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historySan Martin San Juan - Atletico de Rafaela
San Martin San Juan
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The San Martin San Juan - Atletico de Rafaela breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form