Argentina. Primera Nacional
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 San Martin S.J. — 53%
Pure model vs market (1 · San Martin S.J.): model 36% · market 54% Δ −18 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win San Martin S.J. 53.2%, draw 29.6%, win Atletico DE Rafaela 17.2%. Model favourite — San Martin S.J..
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.42 70.4% |
| yes | 2.83 35.3% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.30 76.9% | 1.32 75.8% |
| 1x | 1.09 91.7% | 1.10 90.9% |
| x2 | 1.98 50.5% | 2.00 50.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.45 40.8% | |
| X | 1.84 54.4% |
| 7.80 12.8% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.65 60.6% |
| Over 1 | 2.81 35.6% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.10 47.6% |
| Under 1 | 1.38 72.5% |
San Martin S.J.
Agropekuario
Tristan Suares
Chakarita Khuniors
Khimnasiya Khukhuy
Temperley
Atletico DE Rafaela
Nueva Chikago
Temperley
Deportivo Maypu
Patronato
Kolekhiales
Full head-to-head historySan Martin S.J. - Atletico DE Rafaela
The San Martin S.J. - Atletico DE Rafaela breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
