Argentina. Primera Nacional
San Martin Tucuman take on San Martin S.J. on August 9, 2026 in the Argentina. Primera Nacional.
Recent form (W-D-L): San Martin Tucuman 2-1-2, San Martin S.J. 0-1-4. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 San Martin Tucuman — 46%
Pure model vs market (1 · San Martin Tucuman): model 49% · market 46% Δ +3 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win San Martin Tucuman 46.4%, draw 31.9%, win San Martin S.J. 21.8%. Model favourite — San Martin Tucuman.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.47 68.0% |
| yes | 2.63 38.0% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.32 75.8% | 1.37 73.0% |
| 1x | 1.16 86.2% | 1.18 84.8% |
| x2 | 1.63 61.4% | 1.72 58.1% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.87 34.8% | |
| X | 1.83 54.6% |
| 5.40 18.5% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 2.81 35.6% |
| Under 1 | 1.38 72.5% |
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 1.95 | 2.8 | 4.2 |
| Winline | 1.99 | 2.8 | 4.2 |
| Fonbet | 1.95 | 2.8 | 4.2 |
| Betcity | 2 | 2.85 | 4.3 |
| Liga Stavok | 2.01 | 2.8 | 4.2 |
San Martin Tucuman
Nueva Chikago
Temperley
Deportivo Maypu
Almagro
Patronato
San Martin S.J.
Atletiko Rafaela
Agropekuario
Tristan Suares
Chakarita Khuniors
Khimnasiya Khukhuy
Full head-to-head historySan Martin Tucuman - San Martin S.J.
The San Martin Tucuman - San Martin S.J. breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
