Argentina. Primera Nacional
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Ciudad de Bolívar — 41%
Pure model vs market (1 · Ciudad de Bolívar): model 49% · market 42% Δ +7 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Ciudad de Bolívar 41.4%, draw 33.2%, win Atletico Mitre 25.4%. Model favourite — Ciudad de Bolívar.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.44 69.4% |
| yes | 2.74 36.5% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.38 72.5% | 1.41 70.9% |
| 1x | 1.22 82.0% | 1.23 81.3% |
| x2 | 1.54 64.9% | 1.57 63.7% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.14 31.9% | |
| X | 1.81 55.3% |
| 4.79 20.9% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.74 57.5% |
| Under 0.5 | 1.98 50.5% |
Ciudad de Bolívar
Estudiantes
Oll Boys
Los Andes
Godoy Krus
Deportivo Moron
Atletico Mitre
Almirante Braun
Rasing Kordova
Estudiantes
Oll Boys
Los Andes
Full head-to-head historyCiudad de Bolívar - Atletico Mitre
The Ciudad de Bolívar - Atletico Mitre breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
