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Argentina: Torneo Federal - Etap proigravshikh Standings
Argentina: Torneo Federal - Etap proigravshikh Standings
02.08.2026 18:00 UTC
02.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Not started

Argentina: Torneo Federal - Etap proigravshikh Standings

Sol de Mayo - Santamarina

Football
Sol de Mayo
Sol de Mayo
- : -
Not started
Santamarina
Santamarina

Sol de Mayo face Santamarina on August 2, 2026 in the Argentina: Torneo Federal - Etap proigravshikh Standings.

Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Sol de Mayo — 50%

Pure model vs market (1 · Sol de Mayo): model 48% · market 51% Δ −3 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Sol de Mayo50.3%
X · draw28.9%
2 · Santamarina20.8%

Model estimate: win Sol de Mayo 50.3%, draw 28.9%, win Santamarina 20.8%. Model favourite — Sol de Mayo.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Sol de Mayo (odds1.81) Score 2:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Sol-de-Mayo: probability 50% vs 55% on the line (odds 1.81)
  • • no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sol de Mayo - Santamarina August 2, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Sol de Mayo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.83 / X 3.15 / 2 4.60

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 50.5%
X 29.4%
2 20.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Torneo Federal A
League table
Sol de Mayo
#2918 ptsGP 164-6-615:18
Santamarina
#3613 ptsGP 162-7-79:17
Best price across 1 books
1 1.75 Bet365
X 3.10 Bet365
2 4.50 Bet365

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Sol de Mayo
W-D-L 2-3-5 Scored 1.11 Conceded 1.61 xG 0.84 xGA 1.22
Santamarina
W-D-L 1-3-6 Scored 0.30 Conceded 1.30 xG 0.76 xGA 1.23 Corners 4.0

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Sol de Mayo
Rating 1464
Santamarina
Rating 1424

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 02.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Market 1 50.5% @ 1.83 / X 29.4% @ 3.15 / 2 20.1% @ 4.60
Match center

Sol de Mayo - Santamarina

Form 5/4 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line
More needed
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Sol de Mayo 50.5% 50.3% market and model agree
Draw 29.3% 28.9% draw risk
Santamarina 20.2% 20.8%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 50.3% / 28.9% / 20.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,426 Sol de America Formosa / Social Pariacoto
RD 350 / 207 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 1,012-1,839 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.51 market consensus · no value · model 20.8%
X 3.12 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.81 market consensus · no value · model 50.3%
Double chance
12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 71.1%
1X 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 79.2%
X2 1.87 market consensus · no value · model 49.7%
Handicap
2 +1 1.43 market consensus · line only
2 0 3.30 market consensus · line only
1 -1 2.70 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.29 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.64 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.12 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.64 61.0%
yes 2.12 47.2%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.29 77.5% 1.32 75.8%
1x 1.15 87.0% 1.16 86.2%
x2 1.84 54.4% 1.90 52.6%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.52 39.7%
X 1.91 52.4%
5.30 18.9%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 2.28 43.9%
Under 1 1.56 64.1%
Match center
Sol de Mayo
D L L D L
26.07 16:00 UTC+0 Argentina: Torneo Federal Standings
Sol de Mayo 3:3 Villa MitreVilla Mitre
12.07 16:00 UTC+0 Argentina: Torneo Federal Standings
Sol de Mayo 1:3 Sirkulo DeportivoSirkulo Deportivo
05.07 16:00 UTC+0 Argentina: Torneo Federal Standings
Sol de Mayo 1:2 KimberleyKimberley
14.06 16:00 UTC+0 Argentina: Torneo Federal Standings
Sol de Mayo 1:1 OlimpoOlimpo
07.06 16:00 UTC+0 Argentina: Torneo Federal Standings
Sol de Mayo 0:2 AlvaradoAlvarado
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
2.2 Conceded
2 Points
Santamarina
L D W L
26.07 16:00 UTC+0 Argentina: Torneo Federal Standings
Santamarina 0:2 OlimpoOlimpo
14.06 16:00 UTC+0 Argentina: Torneo Federal Standings
Santamarina 0:0 Sirkulo DeportivoSirkulo Deportivo
07.06 16:30 UTC+0 Argentina: Torneo Federal Standings
Santamarina 1:0 KimberleyKimberley
31.05 16:00 UTC+0 Argentina: Torneo Federal Standings
Santamarina 2:3 Sol-de-MayoSol-de-Mayo
1 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.3 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historySol de Mayo - Santamarina

Sol de Mayo
0 matches total
Santamarina
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history