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28.07.2026 18:00 UTC
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28.07.2026 18:00 UTC
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Argentina: Reserve tournament - Clausura Standings
Boca Juniors (r) - Belgrano 2
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🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Boca Juniors (r) — 55%
Pure model vs market (1 · Boca Juniors (r)): model 42% · market 54% Δ −12 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Boca Juniors (r) 54.7%, draw 26.2%, win Belgrano 2 19.1%. Model favourite — Boca Juniors (r).
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Boca Juniors (r) (odds1.36)
Score 3:0
confidence 73%
- • Model backs Boka Khuniors 2: probability 73% vs 74% on the line (odds 1.36)
- • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 3:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Boca Juniors (r) - Belgrano 2 July 28, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Boca Juniors (r).
Line favourite market consensus: Boca Juniors (r). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.65 / X 3.36 / 2 4.79
- 1X2 market: Boca Juniors (r) 54.4% / X 26.8% / Belgrano 2 18.9%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 11.2%
1
54.5%
X
26.8%
2
18.8%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Boca Juniors (r)
1
:
1
Belgrano 2
11.62
X3.42
25.20
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
LIVE
Now in play
score 1:0 · 49'
Current match situation. Updates every ~3 min.
LIVE
1X2 probabilities (live, from the line)
49'
Boca Juniors (r) (1)
Draw (X) Belgrano 2 (2)
Implied probabilities from the Fonbet live line (1/odds, normalized). For reference.
LIVE
Match momentum (live)
1:0 49'
Boca Juniors (r)
Belgrano 2
Live momentum from Sportradar (attacks/shots/control). Updates during the match.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Boca Juniors (r) 55%
💹 Market
Boca Juniors (r) 5436%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Boca Juniors (r) - Belgrano 2
Form
1/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Boca Juniors (r)
55.5%
54.7%
market and model agree
Draw
26.5%
26.2%
draw risk
Belgrano 2
18.0%
19.1%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
54.7% / 26.2% / 19.1%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,392 / 1,433
Boca Juniors (r) / Belgrano 2
RD
206 / 227
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
981-1,803 / 979-1,887
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.83
market consensus · no value · model 19.1%
X
5.70
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.19
Fonbet · no value · model 54.7%
Double chance
12
1.11
Fonbet · no value · model 73.8%
1X
1.02
Fonbet · no value · model 80.9%
X2
3.95
Fonbet · weak value +79.0% · model 45.3%
Handicap
2 +1
1.67
market consensus · line only
2 0
9.50
Fonbet · line only
1 -1
2.07
market consensus · line only
1 0
1.02
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.60
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
1.43
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.43
Fonbet · line only
Yes
2.60
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.60 62.5% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.57 63.7% | |
| X | 3.35 29.9% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.00 33.3% |
| 5.10 19.6% | 5.25 19.1% | 4.50 22.2% | 4.45 22.5% | 5.00 20.0% | 4.33 23.1% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.43 69.9% | 1.71 58.5% |
| yes | 2.60 38.5% | 2.01 49.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.18 84.8% | 1.24 80.7% | 1.11 90.1% |
| 1x | 1.07 93.5% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.02 98.0% |
| x2 | 2.05 48.8% | 2.23 44.8% | 3.95 25.3% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 0_1 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 0_2 | 23.00 4.4% |
| 0_3 | 67.00 1.5% |
| 1_0 | 4.75 21.1% |
| 1_1 | 6.00 16.7% |
| 1_2 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 1_3 | 46.00 2.2% |
| 2_0 | 5.75 17.4% |
| 2_1 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 2_2 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 2_3 | 51.00 2.0% |
| 3_0 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 3_1 | 12.00 8.3% |
| 3_2 | 26.00 3.9% |
| 3_3 | 71.00 1.4% |
| 4_0 | 23.00 4.4% |
| 4_1 | 26.00 3.9% |
Match center
Boca Juniors (r)
L
Boca Juniors (r)
0:3
Deportivo Riestra 2
Deportivo Riestra 2
0
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
0.0
Scored
3.0
Conceded
0
Points
Belgrano 2
D
Belgrano 2
1:1
Ferro 2
Ferro 2
0
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
1.0
Scored
1.0
Conceded
1
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyBoca Juniors (r) - Belgrano 2
Boca Juniors (r)
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Boca Juniors (r) - Belgrano 2 breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form