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Australia. New South Wales. National Premier League
Australia. New South Wales. National Premier League
01.08.2026 02:30 UTC
01.08.2026 02:30 UTC
Not started

Australia. New South Wales. National Premier League

Sydney United - NWS Spirit

Football
Sydney United
Sydney United
- : -
Not started
NWS Spirit
NWS Spirit
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Sydney United — 68%

Pure model vs market (1 · Sydney United): model 50% · market 48% Δ +2 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Sydney United ✓ Pick68.1%
market48%
X · draw17.5%
market27%
2 · NWS Spirit14.4%
market25%

Model estimate: win Sydney United 68.1%, draw 17.5%, win NWS Spirit 14.4%. Model favourite — Sydney United.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Sydney United (odds1.79) Score 2:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Sidney Yunayted: probability 50% vs 56% on the line (odds 1.79)
  • • no edge over the line (-6 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sydney United - NWS Spirit August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Sydney United. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.97 / X 3.48 / 2 3.80

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.8%
1 ✓ Pick 48.0%
X 27.2%
2 24.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

New South Wales NPL
League table
Sydney United
#351 ptsGP 2516-3-635:18
ARRAY
NWS Spirit
#1231 ptsGP 259-4-1228:34
ARRAY
Best price across 5 books
1 2.12 Unibet
X 3.60 Betfair
2 3.30 Bet365

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Sydney United
W-D-L 4-2-4 Scored 0.60 Conceded 0.60 xG 1.68 xGA 1.14
NWS Spirit
W-D-L 3-1-6 Scored 1.10 Conceded 1.41 xG 1.63 xGA 1.30

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Sydney United
Rating 1621 xG 1.25 Win 38%
NWS Spirit
Rating 1496 xG 1.16 Win 34%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 02:30 UTC
Market 1 48.0% @ 1.97 / X 27.2% @ 3.48 / 2 24.9% @ 3.80
Match center

Sydney United - NWS Spirit

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Form Match Participants
More needed
Market fonbet, BetBoom, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Line fonbet, BetBoom, odds
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Sydney United - 68.1% model pick
Draw - 17.5% draw risk
NWS Spirit - 14.4%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 68.1% / 17.5% / 14.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,546 / 1,402 Sydney United / NWS Spirit
RD 188 / 169 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,170-1,923 / 1,064-1,739 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.62 market consensus · no value · model 14.4%
X 3.43 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.92 market consensus · value +30.7% · model 68.1%
Double chance
12 1.26 market consensus · value +4.0% · model 82.5%
1X 1.21 market consensus · weak value +3.6% · model 85.6%
X2 1.78 market consensus · no value · model 31.9%
Handicap
2 0 2.70 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.41 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.89 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.96 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.76 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.96 51.0%
yes 1.76 56.8%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7%
1x 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0%
x2 1.76 56.8% 1.80 55.6%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.47 40.5%
X 2.10 47.6%
4.38 22.8%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.84 54.4%
Under 1 1.86 53.8%
Match center
Sydney United
L L W D D
25.07 07:15 UTC Australia: NPL Novyy Yuzhnyy Uels Standings
Sydney United 0:1 Sent-Dzhordzh SitiSent-Dzhordzh Siti
19.07 03:00 UTC Australia: NPL Novyy Yuzhnyy Uels Standings
Sydney United 0:2 Markoni StallionsMarkoni Stallions
12.07 02:30 UTC Australia: NPL Novyy Yuzhnyy Uels Standings
Sydney United 1:0 Rokdeyl IlindenRokdeyl Ilinden
05.07 03:00 UTC Australia: NPL Novyy Yuzhnyy Uels Standings
Sydney United 0:0 Blektaun SitiBlektaun Siti
12.06 07:30 UTC Australia: NPL Novyy Yuzhnyy Uels Standings
Sydney United 1:1 Menli YunaytedMenli Yunayted
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.4 Scored
0.8 Conceded
5 Points
NWS Spirit
L L W D W
25.07 05:30 UTC Australia: NPL Novyy Yuzhnyy Uels Standings
NWS Spirit 0:4 VS Uonderers U21VS Uonderers U21
18.07 05:15 UTC Australia: NPL Novyy Yuzhnyy Uels Standings
NWS Spirit 1:3 UNSWUNSW
11.07 05:30 UTC Australia: NPL Novyy Yuzhnyy Uels Standings
NWS Spirit 3:1 Sen Dzhordzh SeintsSen Dzhordzh Seints
05.07 03:00 UTC Australia: NPL Novyy Yuzhnyy Uels Standings
NWS Spirit 1:1 Rokdeyl IlindenRokdeyl Ilinden
13.06 05:30 UTC Australia: NPL Novyy Yuzhnyy Uels Standings
NWS Spirit 3:0 Sidney OlimpikSidney Olimpik
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.8 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historySydney United - NWS Spirit

Sydney United
0 matches total
NWS Spirit
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history