Australia: NPL South Australia Standings
West Adelaide (r) (w) - Modbury Jets (w)
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Modbury Jets (w) — 51%
Pure model vs market (2 · Modbury Jets (w)): model 38% · market 53% Δ −15 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win West Adelaide (r) (w) 25.1%, draw 23.6%, win Modbury Jets (w) 51.3%. Model favourite — Modbury Jets (w).
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
- • Model backs Kempbelltaun Siti: probability 50% vs 50% on the line (odds 1.99)
- • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction West Adelaide (r) (w) - Modbury Jets (w) July 29, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.80 / X 4.17 / 2 2.16
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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West Adelaide (r) (w) - Modbury Jets (w)
What data is collected and where it is shown
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.94 51.6% |
| yes | 1.80 55.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Betcity |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.24 80.7% |
| 1x | 1.62 61.7% |
| x2 | 1.38 72.5% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 5.80 17.2% | |
| X | 2.31 43.3% |
| 2.02 49.5% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.66 60.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 2.06 48.5% |
| Under 1 | 2.09 47.9% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.68 59.5% |
West Adelaide (r) (w)
Kroydon
Adelaida Komets
Adelaida Yunayted U23
Vest Torrens
Para
Modbury Jets (w)
Vest Torrens
Kroydon
Para
Adelaida Yunayted U23
Styurt Layons
Full head-to-head historyWest Adelaide (r) (w) - Modbury Jets (w)
Match history
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The West Adelaide (r) (w) - Modbury Jets (w) breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form