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Australia. Victoria.National Premier League
Australia. Victoria.National Premier League
01.08.2026 05:30 UTC
01.08.2026 05:30 UTC
Not started

Australia. Victoria.National Premier League

South Melbourne - St. Albans Saints

Football
South Melbourne
South Melbourne
- : -
Not started
St. Albans Saints
St. Albans Saints
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 South Melbourne — 54%

Pure model vs market (1 · South Melbourne): model 60% · market 59% Δ +1 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · South Melbourne54.2%
X · draw20.0%
2 · St. Albans Saints25.9%

Model estimate: win South Melbourne 54.2%, draw 20.0%, win St. Albans Saints 25.9%. Model favourite — South Melbourne.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1South Melbourne (odds1.49) Score 2:1 confidence 54%
  • • Model backs Saut Melburn: probability 54% vs 67% on the line (odds 1.49)
  • • no edge over the line (-13 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction South Melbourne - St. Albans Saints August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: South Melbourne. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.62 / X 5.00 / 2 4.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.0%
1 59.4%
X 19.2%
2 21.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Victoria NPL
League table
South Melbourne
#535 ptsGP 2211-2-933:33
ARRAY
St. Albans Saints
#1027 ptsGP 227-6-927:39
ARRAY
Best price across 10 books
1 1.70 Bet365
X 4.10 Unibet
2 4.90 Unibet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
South Melbourne
W-D-L 4-2-4 Scored 1.40 Conceded 1.59 xG 1.71 xGA 1.60
St. Albans Saints
W-D-L 2-5-3 Scored 1.40 Conceded 1.60 xG 1.31 xGA 1.74

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
South Melbourne
Rating 1587 xG 1.59 Win 48%
St. Albans Saints
Rating 1558 xG 1.13 Win 27%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 05:30 UTC
Market 1 59.4% @ 1.62 / X 19.2% @ 5.00 / 2 21.4% @ 4.50
Match center

South Melbourne - St. Albans Saints

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
South Melbourne 61.1% 54.2% market and model agree
Draw 18.2% 20.0% draw risk
St. Albans Saints 20.7% 25.9%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 54.2% / 20.0% / 25.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,799 / 1,463 South Melbourne / St Albans Saints
RD 174 / 188 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,452-2,147 / 1,087-1,839 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.42 market consensus · no value · model 25.9%
X 4.37 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.57 market consensus · no value · model 54.2%
Double chance
12 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 80.0%
1X 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 74.1%
X2 2.27 market consensus · weak value +4.0% · model 45.8%
Handicap
2 +1 1.83 market consensus · line only
2 0 3.50 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.90 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.26 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.32 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.54 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.32 43.1%
yes 1.54 64.9%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.18 84.8% 1.13 88.5%
1x 1.15 87.0% 1.17 85.5%
x2 2.10 47.6% 2.44 41.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.11 47.4%
X 2.38 42.0%
4.63 21.6%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.22 45.1%
Under 1.5 1.59 62.9%
Match center
South Melbourne
W D W W L
24.07 08:15 UTC Australia: NPL Viktoriya Standings
South Melbourne 5:0 Okli KennonsOkli Kennons
18.07 03:15 UTC Australia: NPL Viktoriya Standings
South Melbourne 0:0 Preston LayonsPreston Layons
10.07 07:45 UTC Australia: NPL Viktoriya Standings
South Melbourne 2:0 Dandenong SitiDandenong Siti
05.07 03:30 UTC Australia: NPL Viktoriya Standings
South Melbourne 1:0 DandenongDandenong
07.06 03:30 UTC Australia: NPL Viktoriya Standings
South Melbourne 2:3 Altona MedzhikAltona Medzhik
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.6 Conceded
10 Points
St. Albans Saints
L D D D D
24.07 07:30 UTC Australia: NPL Viktoriya Standings
St. Albans Saints 0:2 Khyum SitiKhyum Siti
18.07 03:00 UTC Australia: NPL Viktoriya Standings
St. Albans Saints 1:1 EyvondeylEyvondeyl
12.07 03:00 UTC Australia: NPL Viktoriya Standings
St. Albans Saints 2:2 George CrossGeorge Cross
03.07 07:30 UTC Australia: NPL Viktoriya Standings
St. Albans Saints 1:1 Geydelberg YunaytedGeydelberg Yunayted
05.06 08:15 UTC Australia: NPL Viktoriya Standings
St. Albans Saints 2:2 Okli KennonsOkli Kennons
0 Wins
4 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.6 Conceded
4 Points