Australia: Victoria Premier League 2 Standings
Box Hill - Keilor Park
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Box Hill — 44%
Pure model vs market (1 · Box Hill): model 43% · market 44% Δ −1 pp model estimate matches the market
Model estimate: win Box Hill 43.8%, draw 25.7%, win Keilor Park 30.5%. Model favourite — Box Hill.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
- • Model backs Box Hill: probability 51% vs 52% on the line (odds 1.94)
- • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Box Hill - Keilor Park July 30, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.10 / X 3.56 / 2 3.06
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Box Hill - Keilor Park
What data is collected and where it is shown
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.18 45.9% |
| yes | 1.61 62.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.22 82.0% | 1.26 79.4% |
| 1x | 1.30 76.9% | 1.34 74.6% |
| x2 | 1.61 62.1% | 1.67 59.9% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.60 38.5% | |
| X | 2.20 45.5% |
| 3.69 27.1% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.67 59.9% |
| Under 1 | 2.07 48.3% |
Box Hill
Ister Layonz
Altona Siti
Essendon Royals SC
Whittlesea United
Verribi Siti
Keilor Park
Bayside Argonauts
Verribi Siti
Malvern
Springveyl
Nunawading City
Full head-to-head historyBox Hill - Keilor Park
Match history
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The Box Hill - Keilor Park breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form