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30.07.2026 08:15 UTC
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30.07.2026 08:15 UTC
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Australia. U23. Victoria. National Premier League 2
Melbourne Victory 2 - Melbourne Srbija
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Melbourne Srbija
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Melbourne Victory 2 — 57%
Model estimate: win Melbourne Victory 2 56.8%, draw 18.0%, win Melbourne Srbija 25.2%. Model favourite — Melbourne Victory 2.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Melbourne Victory 2 - Melbourne Srbija July 30, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: Melbourne Victory 2. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.16 / X 6.60 / 2 11.10
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 10.4%
1 ✓ Pick
78.1%
X
13.7%
2
8.2%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Melbourne Victory 2 - Melbourne Srbija
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Melbourne Victory 2
78.1%
56.8%
market and model agree
Draw
13.7%
18.0%
draw risk
Melbourne Srbija
8.2%
25.2%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
56.8% / 18.0% / 25.2%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,682 / 1,604
Melbourne Victory 2 / Melbourne Srbija
RD
160 / 200
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,363-2,002 / 1,203-2,004
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
X
6.60
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.16
market consensus · no value · model 56.8%
Both teams to score
No
2.06
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.68
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.06 48.5% |
| yes | 1.68 59.5% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.54 64.9% | |
| X | 2.80 35.7% |
| 9.70 10.3% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 1.81 55.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.89 52.9% |
Handicap
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.70 58.8% | |
| 2.05 48.8% |
Match center
Melbourne Victory 2
W
W
D
L
W
Melbourne Victory 2
1:0
North Sunshine Eagles
North Sunshine Eagles
Melbourne Victory 2
2:0
Nort Gilong
Nort Gilong
Melbourne Victory 2
3:3
Langwarrin
Melbourne Victory 2
2:3
Western Utd. U21
Melbourne Victory 2
4:2
Bullin
Bullin
3
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
2.4
Scored
1.6
Conceded
10
Points
Melbourne Srbija
W
L
L
W
W
Melbourne Srbija
2:0
Eltkhem Redbeks
Eltkhem Redbeks
Melbourne Srbija
0:1
Port Melburn Sharks
Port Melburn Sharks
Melbourne Srbija
0:1
Manningham United Blues
Melbourne Srbija
3:2
Nortkot Siti
Nortkot Siti
Melbourne Srbija
2:1
North Sunshine Eagles
North Sunshine Eagles
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
1.4
Scored
1.0
Conceded
9
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyMelbourne Victory 2 - Melbourne Srbija
Melbourne Victory 2
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Melbourne Victory 2 - Melbourne Srbija breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form