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30.07.2026 08:30 UTC
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30.07.2026 08:30 UTC
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Australia. U23. Victoria. National Premier League 2
Northcote City U23 - Eltham Redbacks U23
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🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Northcote City U23 — 56%
Pure model vs market (1 · Northcote City U23): model 45% · market 58% Δ −13 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Northcote City U23 56.0%, draw 20.0%, win Eltham Redbacks U23 24.0%. Model favourite — Northcote City U23.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Northcote City U23 (odds1.63)
Score 2:0
confidence 61%
- • Model backs Nortkot Siti: probability 61% vs 61% on the line (odds 1.63)
- • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 2:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Northcote City U23 - Eltham Redbacks U23 July 30, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: Northcote City U23. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.76 / X 5.00 / 2 4.56
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin -1.3%
1
57.5%
X
20.3%
2
22.2%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Northcote City U23 - Eltham Redbacks U23
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Northcote City U23
56.8%
56.0%
market and model agree
Draw
19.9%
20.0%
draw risk
Eltham Redbacks U23
23.3%
24.0%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
56.0% / 20.0% / 24.0%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,535 / 1,543
Northcote City U23 / Eltham Redbacks U23
RD
180 / 173
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,174-1,896 / 1,198-1,887
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.98
market consensus · no value · model 24.0%
X
4.60
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.62
market consensus · no value · model 56.0%
Double chance
12
1.19
market consensus · no value · model 80.0%
1X
1.27
market consensus · no value · model 76.0%
X2
1.95
market consensus · no value · model 44.0%
Handicap
2 +1
2.05
market consensus · line only
2 0
2.75
market consensus · line only
1 -1
1.70
market consensus · line only
1 0
1.40
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.95
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.35
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.95 33.9% |
| yes | 1.35 74.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Betcity |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.19 84.0% |
| 1x | 1.27 78.7% |
| x2 | 1.95 51.3% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.85 54.1% | |
| X | 2.80 35.7% |
| 4.71 21.2% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 1.78 56.2% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.93 51.8% |
Match center
Northcote City U23
W
D
L
L
W
Northcote City U23
3:1
Port Melburn Sharks
Port Melburn Sharks
Northcote City U23
3:3
Manningham United Blues
Northcote City U23
2:3
Melbourne Srbija
Northcote City U23
1:2
Nort Gilong
Nort Gilong
Northcote City U23
3:1
Langwarrin
2
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
2.4
Scored
2.0
Conceded
7
Points
Eltham Redbacks U23
L
D
W
W
L
Eltham Redbacks U23
0:2
Melbourne Srbija
Eltham Redbacks U23
1:1
North Sunshine Eagles
North Sunshine Eagles
Eltham Redbacks U23
3:1
Nort Gilong
Nort Gilong
Eltham Redbacks U23
6:1
Langwarrin
Eltham Redbacks U23
1:3
Brunswick City
Brunswick City
2
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
2.2
Scored
1.6
Conceded
7
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyNorthcote City U23 - Eltham Redbacks U23
Northcote City U23
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Northcote City U23 - Eltham Redbacks U23 breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form