Austria: Bundesliga Standings
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Austria Lustenau — 36%
Pure model vs market (1 · Austria Lustenau): model 42% · market 35% Δ +7 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Austria Lustenau 36.0%, draw 28.5%, win Ried 35.5%. Model favourite — Austria Lustenau.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.95 51.3% |
| yes | 1.80 55.6% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.30 76.9% | 1.32 75.8% |
| 1x | 1.43 69.9% | 1.46 68.5% |
| x2 | 1.43 69.9% | 1.42 70.4% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.34 29.9% | |
| X | 2.08 48.1% |
| 3.34 29.9% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.95 51.3% |
| Under 1 | 1.76 56.8% |
Ried
Full head-to-head historyAustria Lustenau - Ried
The Austria Lustenau - Ried breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
