UEFA Conference League. First qualifying round. Second Leg

15 round 12.07.2026 11:00 UTC Match prediction

12.07.2026 11:00 UTC 15 round

Finished

UEFA Conference League. First qualifying round. Second Leg

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk - Vitebsk

Futbol

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

0 : 3

Finished

Vitebsk

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Arsenal Dzerzhinsk - Vitebsk July 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.

Line favourite market consensus: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.49 / X 3.06 / 2 2.75
1X2 market: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 36.7% / X 30.0% / Vitebsk 33.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.2%

1 36.8%

X 29.9%

2 33.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Premier League

League table

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

#821 ptsGP 155-6-418:21

LWDWW

Vitebsk

#1020 ptsGP 155-5-516:16

WWDLW

Best price across 8 books

1 2.50 Pinnacle

X 3.25 Marathonbet

2 2.92 Superbet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

W-D-L 3-4-3 Scored 1.20 Conceded 1.59 xG 0.80 xGA 1.68 Corners 3.6

Vitebsk

W-D-L 2-4-4 Scored 0.90 Conceded 1.30 xG 1.17 xGA 1.36 Corners 3.5

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Rating 1551 xG 1.19 Win 39%

Vitebsk

Rating 1490 xG 1.07 Win 33%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1 : 1 Vitebsk

12.55

X3.13

22.78

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center

Start 12.07.2026 11:00 UTC

Match center

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk - Vitebsk

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Arsenal Dz - Vitebsk, 12 iyulya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Belarusi po futbolu 2026, 15 round. Arsenal Dz - Vitebsk, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 0/3 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.03 Fonbet · line only

X 9.00 Fonbet · line only

1 2.50 market consensus · line only

Double chance

12 1.02 Fonbet · line only

1X 7.80 Fonbet · line only

X2 1.01 Fonbet · line only

Handicap

2 -1 1.03 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 1.01 Fonbet · line only

2 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 8.50 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.40 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.14 Fonbet · line only

Yes 4.70 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	1xBet	Dafabet	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SBO	Superbet
	2.53 39.5%	2.55 39.2%	2.53 39.5%	2.51 39.8%	2.38 42.0%	2.45 40.8%
X	3.18 31.5%	3.10 32.3%	3.18 31.5%	3.18 31.5%	2.87 34.8%	3.00 33.3%
	2.76 36.2%	2.75 36.4%	2.76 36.2%	2.74 36.5%	2.60 38.5%	2.92 34.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	1.14 87.7%	1.77 56.5%
yes	4.70 21.3%	1.94 51.6%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
12	1.29 77.5%	1.32 75.8%	1.02 98.0%
1x	1.39 71.9%	1.44 69.4%	7.80 12.8%
x2	1.45 69.0%	1.44 69.4%	1.01 99.0%

Exact Score

Outcome	1xBet
0_0	7.10 14.1%
0_1	7.00 14.3%
0_10	100.00 1.0%
0_2	12.00 8.3%
0_3	29.00 3.5%
0_4	70.00 1.4%
0_5	100.00 1.0%
0_6	100.00 1.0%
0_7	100.00 1.0%
0_8	100.00 1.0%
0_9	100.00 1.0%
1_0	7.00 14.3%
1_1	5.50 18.2%
1_10	100.00 1.0%
1_2	9.50 10.5%
1_3	26.00 3.9%
1_4	65.00 1.5%
1_5	100.00 1.0%

Match center

Vitebsk

W W L

04.07 11:00 UTC Belarus: Premier League Standings

Vitebsk 1:0 Dnepr Mogilev

13.06 12:00 UTC Belarus: Premier League Standings

Vitebsk 2:1 ML Vitebsk

31.05 09:00 UTC Belarus: Premier League Standings

Vitebsk 2:3 Baranovichi

2 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

1.7 Scored

1.3 Conceded

6 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyArsenal Dzerzhinsk - Vitebsk

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

0 matches total

Vitebsk

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Vitebsk

14 Games 14

5 Wins 4

6 Draws 5

3 Losses 5

18 Scored 13

18 Conceded 16

21 Points 17

0 Attacks 0

0 Dangerous attacks 0

0 Big chances 0

0 Shots on goal 0

0 Shots on target 0

Arsenal Dz 30 round Goly Evgeni Novykh 0:1 63' Roman Minaev 0:2 76' Sergey Tikhonovskiy 0:3 78'

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Arsenal Dz Vitebsk 14 Games 14 5 Wins 4 6 Draws 5 3 Losses 5 18 Scored 13 18 Conceded 16 21 Points 17 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0.14 Sendoffs 0 Sleduyuschiy match 28.11.2026 Belarus — Premier League Vitebsk –:– Arsenal Dz 30 round Goly Evgeni Novykh 0:1 63' Roman Minaev 0:2 76' Sergey Tikhonovskiy 0:3 78' Rezultaty golosovaniya Iskhod v osnovnoe vremya 48% 28% 24% Double chance 38% 36% 26% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1305654' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical');