UEFA Conference League. First qualifying round. Second Leg

14 round 04.07.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction

04.07.2026 13:00 UTC 14 round

Finished

UEFA Conference League. First qualifying round. Second Leg

Neman - Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Futbol

Neman

0 : 1

Finished

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🔒 «Formula lock»

1Neman — 58%

The formula agrees with the market favourite in the moderate-odds zone — historically the most profitable slice (basketball/football/hockey). NOT a profit guarantee.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Neman - Arsenal Dzerzhinsk July 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Neman.

Line favourite market consensus: Neman. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.54 / X 3.70 / 2 5.67
1X2 market: Neman 59.2% / X 24.7% / Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 16.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.6%

1 59.2%

X 24.7%

2 16.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Form and head-to-head • Vysshaya Liga

Team stats

Neman

WDWLLWLWLL

W 4 • D 1 • L 5 (10)

Goals average:1.2 : 1.3

7 place, 20 pts

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

WDDDLLLWWD

W 3 • D 4 • L 3 (10)

Goals average:1.3 : 1.6

9 place, 18 pts

Head-to-head: 7 — Neman 6, draws 1, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0 (goals 14:2)

Neman Grodno — FK Arsenal Dzerzhinsk2025-10-10 1:0
FK Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — Neman Grodno2025-04-19 0:3
FK Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — Neman Grodno2024-10-06 0:4
Neman Grodno — FK Arsenal Dzerzhinsk2024-05-16 1:0
FK Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — Neman Grodno2022-10-02 1:1

Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.

Match conditions

Match weather

Слабая морось

Temperature

17°

Feels like

14.5°

Wind

21.2 km/h (gusts 49)

Precipitation

0.1 mm/h

Humidity

72%

Cloud cover

100%

⚠ Strong wind complicates ball control and crosses — a factor toward a lower total.

⚠ Precipitation slows the game and damages the pitch — statistically fewer goals.

Weather forecast at the stadium at kickoff. For reference.

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Match center

Stadium Neman (Grodno, Belarus), vmestimost: 9000 0' 45' 90' 28' 0:1 Valeriy Gorbachik 90+4' Ilya Vasin

Start 04.07.2026 13:00 UTC

Match center

Neman - Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Итоговый протокол and результаты встречи Неман - Арсенал Дз, 4 июля 2026. Обзор and статистика matches, точный счет. Чемпионат Беларуси по футболу 2026, 14 round. Неман - Арсенал Дз, кто победил, онлайн трансляция matches.

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.20 Fonbet · line only

X 4.50 Fonbet · line only

1 1.55 market consensus · line only

Double chance

12 1.16 Fonbet · line only

1X 3.85 Fonbet · line only

X2 1.02 Fonbet · line only

Handicap

2 -1 1.03 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 3.45 Fonbet · line only

2 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 9.00 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.09 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.72 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.20 Fonbet · line only

Yes 3.70 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	1xBet	Dafabet	Pinnacle	SBO	William Hill
	1.55 64.5%	1.57 63.7%	1.55 64.5%	1.49 67.1%	1.55 64.5%
X	3.86 25.9%	3.80 26.3%	3.83 26.1%	3.52 28.4%	3.50 28.6%
	6.11 16.4%	5.60 17.9%	5.90 17.0%	5.22 19.2%	5.50 18.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	1.20 83.3%	1.62 61.7%
yes	3.70 27.0%	2.16 46.3%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
12	1.24 80.7%	1.25 80.0%	1.16 86.2%
1x	1.09 91.7%	1.11 90.1%	3.85 26.0%
x2	2.20 45.5%	2.25 44.4%	1.02 98.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	2.24 44.6%
X	2.11 47.4%
	6.70 14.9%

Match center

Full head-to-head historyNeman - Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Neman

0 matches total

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Neman

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

13 Games 13

6 Wins 4

2 Draws 6

5 Losses 3

15 Scored 17

13 Conceded 18

20 Points 18

0 Attacks 0

0 Dangerous attacks 0

0 Big chances 0

0 Shots on goal 0

0 Shots on target 0

Неман 29 round Голы Валерий Горбачик 0:1 28' Наказания Илья Васин 90+4' Статистика Неман Арсенал Дз 0 Warnings 0 0 Sendoffs 1

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Неман Арсенал Дз 13 Игры 13 6 Победы 4 2 Ничьи 6 5 Поражения 3 15 Забито 17 13 Пропущено 18 20 Очки 18 0 Атаки 0 0 Опасные атаки 0 0 Голевые моменты 0 0 Удары по воротам 0 0 Удары в створ 0 0 Штанги/перекладины 0 0 Угловые 0 0 Оффсайды 0 0 Фолы 0 0 % владения мячом 0 0 Warnings 0 0 Sendoffs 0.08 Следующий match 21.11.2026 Belarus — Высшая лига Арсенал Дз –:– Неман 29 round Голы Валерий Горбачик 0:1 28' Наказания Илья Васин 90+4' Статистика Неман Арсенал Дз 0 Warnings 0 0 Sendoffs 1 Результаты голосования Исход в основное время 58% 18% 24% Double chance 38% 41% 21% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1305668' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical');