Bulgaria: Second League Standings
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Hebar Pazardzhik — 43%
Pure model vs market (1 · Hebar Pazardzhik): model 40% · market 43% Δ −3 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Hebar Pazardzhik 42.7%, draw 27.4%, win Viren 30.0%. Model favourite — Hebar Pazardzhik.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.01 49.8% |
| yes | 1.71 58.5% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.22 82.0% | 1.29 77.5% |
| 1x | 1.25 80.0% | 1.32 75.8% |
| x2 | 1.54 64.9% | 1.64 61.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.78 36.0% | |
| X | 2.06 48.5% |
| 3.76 26.6% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.85 54.1% |
| Under 1 | 1.85 54.1% |
Full head-to-head historyHebar Pazardzhik - Viren
The Hebar Pazardzhik - Viren breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
