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Bolivia. Primera division
Bolivia. Primera division
03.08.2026 22:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
03.08.2026 22:00 UTC
Not started

Bolivia. Primera division

Independiente - Aurora Cochabamba

Football
Independiente
Independiente
- : -
Not started
Aurora Cochabamba
Aurora Cochabamba

Independiente take on Aurora Cochabamba on August 3, 2026 in the Bolivia. Primera division.

Recent form (W-D-L): Independiente 2-0-3, Aurora Cochabamba 2-1-1. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Aurora Cochabamba — 39%

Pure model vs market (2 · Aurora Cochabamba): model 34% · market 39% Δ −5 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Independiente35.5%
X · draw25.5%
2 · Aurora Cochabamba39.0%

Model estimate: win Independiente 35.5%, draw 25.5%, win Aurora Cochabamba 39.0%. Model favourite — Aurora Cochabamba.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Independiente (odds2.40) Score 1:0 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Independente: probability 50% vs 42% on the line (odds 2.40)
  • • edge over the line +8 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Independiente - Aurora Cochabamba August 3, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Aurora Cochabamba. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.65 / X 3.60 / 2 2.37

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.7%
1 35.0%
X 25.8%
2 39.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 03.08.2026 22:00 UTC
Market 1 35.0% @ 2.65 / X 25.8% @ 3.60 / 2 39.2% @ 2.37
Match center

Independiente - Aurora Cochabamba

Form 5/4 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Independiente 35.0% 35.5%
Draw 25.7% 25.5% draw risk
Aurora Cochabamba 39.3% 39.0% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 35.5% / 25.5% / 39.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,422 / 1,434 Independiente / Aurora Cochabamba
RD 174 / 188 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,074-1,770 / 1,057-1,810 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.34 market consensus · no value · model 39.0%
X 3.60 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.63 market consensus · no value · model 35.5%
Double chance
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 74.5%
1X 1.51 market consensus · no value · model 61.0%
X2 1.41 market consensus · no value · model 64.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.34 market consensus · line only
2 0 1.75 market consensus · line only
1 +0.5 1.53 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.96 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.58 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.44 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.58 38.8%
yes 1.44 69.4%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.22 82.0% 1.24 80.7%
1x 1.49 67.1% 1.53 65.4%
x2 1.39 71.9% 1.42 70.4%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.00 33.3%
X 2.48 40.3%
2.76 36.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.17 46.1%
Under 1.5 1.57 63.7%
Match center
Independiente
W L W L L
01.08 19:00 UTC Bolivia: Division Profesional Standings
Independiente 1:0 Real OruroReal Oruro
25.07 21:30 UTC Bolivia: Division Profesional Standings
Independiente 1:2 Oriente PetroleroOriente Petrolero
21.07 21:00 UTC Bolivia: Division Profesional Standings
Independiente 3:0 Real PotosiReal Potosi
16.07 17:00 UTC Bolivia: Division Profesional Standings
Independiente 1:3 Akademiya del Balompe
12.07 21:30 UTC Bolivia: Division Profesional Standings
Independiente 1:2 TomayapoTomayapo
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.4 Conceded
6 Points
Aurora Cochabamba
W D L W
24.07 21:00 UTC Bolivia: Division Profesional Standings
Aurora Cochabamba 3:2 Akademiya del Balompe
18.07 22:30 UTC Bolivia: Division Profesional Standings
Aurora Cochabamba 2:2 Oriente PetroleroOriente Petrolero
09.07 22:00 UTC Bolivia: Division Profesional Standings
Aurora Cochabamba 0:2 Nasonal PotosiNasonal Potosi
01.06 22:00 UTC Bolivia: Division Profesional Standings
Aurora Cochabamba 2:1 Universitario de VintoUniversitario de Vinto
2 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
7 Points