Bolivia. Primera division
Independiente de la Chorrera go head-to-head with Aurora Cochabamba on August 3, 2026 in the Bolivia. Primera division.
Recent form (W-D-L): Independiente de la Chorrera 2-0-3, Aurora Cochabamba 2-1-1. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Aurora Cochabamba — 38%
Pure model vs market (2 · Aurora Cochabamba): model 34% · market 39% Δ −5 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Independiente de la Chorrera 36.7%, draw 25.1%, win Aurora Cochabamba 38.2%. Model favourite — Aurora Cochabamba.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.52 39.7% |
| yes | 1.46 68.5% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.21 82.6% | 1.23 81.3% |
| 1x | 1.47 68.0% | 1.51 66.2% |
| x2 | 1.42 70.4% | 1.45 69.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.09 32.4% | |
| X | 2.34 42.7% |
| 2.86 35.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 2.17 46.1% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.57 63.7% |
Independiente de la Chorrera
Real Oruro
Oriente Petrolero
Real Potosi
Tomayapo
Aurora Cochabamba
Oriente Petrolero
Nasonal Potosi
Universitario de Vinto
Full head-to-head historyIndependiente de la Chorrera - Aurora Cochabamba
The Independiente de la Chorrera - Aurora Cochabamba breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
