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Brazil. Women. Series A1
Brazil. Women. Series A1
02.08.2026 00:00 UTC Match prediction
02.08.2026 00:00 UTC
Finished

Brazil. Women. Series A1

Vitória BA W - São Paulo W

Football
V
Vitória BA W
1 : 4
Finished
São Paulo W
São Paulo W

Vitória BA W go head-to-head with São Paulo W on August 2, 2026 in the Brazil. Women. Series A1.

Recent form (W-D-L): Vitória BA W 1-0-1, São Paulo W 1-0-0. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 7% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 São Paulo W — 80%

Pure model vs market (2 · São Paulo W): model 54% · market 82% Δ −28 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Vitória BA W7.0%
market6%
X · draw12.8%
market12%
2 · São Paulo W ✓ Pick80.2%
market82%

Model estimate: win Vitória BA W 7.0%, draw 12.8%, win São Paulo W 80.2%. Model favourite — São Paulo W.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2São Paulo W (odds1.81) Score 1:2 Under 4.5 (odds1.58) ✗ Handicap H1 +1.5 (odds3.05) ✗ confidence 55% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Model backs San-Paulu (Zh): probability 55% vs 55% on the line (odds 1.81)
  • • legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
  • • Expected score 1:2
  • • Total: Under 4.5: model expects a total of ~3 goals
  • • at line 4.5 (odds 1.58)
  • • Handicap F1 +1.5: score forecast 1:2 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 3.05).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Vitória BA W - São Paulo W August 2, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like São Paulo W.

Line favourite market consensus: São Paulo W. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 15.00 / X 7.40 / 2 1.12
  • Glicko: Vitória BA W 7.0% / X 12.8% / São Paulo W 80.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.5%
1 6.1%
X 12.3%
2 ✓ Pick 81.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Brasileiro Women
League table
Vitória BA W
#176 ptsGP 131-3-99:32
São Paulo W
#229 ptsGP 139-2-221:9
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Vitória BA W
W-D-L 1-2-7 Scored 0.51 Conceded 2.59
São Paulo W
W-D-L 7-2-1 Scored 1.70 Conceded 0.60 xG 1.36 xGA 1.20

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Vitória BA W
Rating 1288
São Paulo W
Rating 1723

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 02.08.2026 00:00 UTC
Market 1 6.1% @ 15.00 / X 12.3% @ 7.40 / 2 81.6% @ 1.12
Match center

Vitória BA W - São Paulo W

Form 2/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:4
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 80.2% fact: away hit / ROI 12.0% / Brier 0.060 / LogLoss 0.220
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 80.2% fact: away hit / ROI 12.0% / Brier 0.060 / LogLoss 0.220
Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 80.2% fact: away hit / ROI 12.0% / Brier 0.060 / LogLoss 0.220
Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 80.2% fact: away hit / ROI 12.0% / Brier 0.060 / LogLoss 0.220
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Vitória BA W 5.7% 7.0%
Draw 12.3% 12.8% draw risk
São Paulo W 81.9% 80.2% market and model agree
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 7.0% / 12.8% / 80.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,429 / 1,850 FC San Martin / Sao Paulo (w)
RD 246 / 184 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 938-1,921 / 1,482-2,219 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.11 market consensus · no value · model 80.2%
X 7.33 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
Double chance
12 1.05 market consensus · no value · model 87.2%
1X 5.30 market consensus · no value · model 19.8%
Total
Over 2.5 1.59 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.20 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.36 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.91 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.36 73.5%
yes 2.91 34.4%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.03 97.1% 1.06 94.3%
1x 4.80 20.8% 5.80 17.2%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
10.30 9.7%
X 2.78 36.0%
1.53 65.4%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.57 63.7%
Under 1 2.26 44.3%
Match center
Vitória BA W
L W
26.07 12:00 UTC Brazil: Brazileyro - Women Standings
Vitória BA W 0:4 Korintians (Zh)Korintians (Zh)
17.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Brazileyro - Women Standings
Vitória BA W 2:0 Botafogo (Zh)Botafogo (Zh)
1 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
3 Points
São Paulo W
W
24.07 22:30 UTC Brazil: Brazileyro - Women Standings
São Paulo W 3:0 Kruzeyro (Zh)
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
3 Points