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France. Ligue 2
France. Ligue 2
02.08.2026 19:00 UTC
02.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Not started

France. Ligue 2

Estrela do Norte - Sport Brasil ES

Football
E
Estrela do Norte
- : -
Not started
S
Sport Brasil ES

Estrela do Norte go head-to-head with Sport Brasil ES on August 2, 2026 in the France. Ligue 2.

Recent form (W-D-L): Estrela do Norte 2-0-0, Sport Brasil ES 2-0-1. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Estrela do Norte — 70%

Pure model vs market (1 · Estrela do Norte): model 60% · market 73% Δ −13 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Estrela do Norte ✓ Pick69.9%
market73%
X · draw17.8%
market18%
2 · Sport Brasil ES12.3%
market9%

Model estimate: win Estrela do Norte 69.9%, draw 17.8%, win Sport Brasil ES 12.3%. Model favourite — Estrela do Norte.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Estrela do Norte (odds1.29) Score 2:0 confidence 70%
  • • Model backs Estrela do Norte: probability 70% vs 78% on the line (odds 1.29)
  • • no edge over the line (-8 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Estrela do Norte - Sport Brasil ES August 2, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Estrela do Norte. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.29 / X 5.30 / 2 10.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9%
1 ✓ Pick 73.2%
X 17.8%
2 9.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Capixaba B
League table
Estrela do Norte
#29 ptsGP 33-0-08:0
Sport Brasil ES
#56 ptsGP 32-0-16:2
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Estrela do Norte
W-D-L 7-0-3 Scored 2.17 Conceded 0.44
Sport Brasil ES
W-D-L 4-1-5 Scored 1.48 Conceded 1.65

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Estrela do Norte 5 : 0 Sport Brasil ES
11.23
X5.25
210.10

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 02.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Market 1 73.2% @ 1.29 / X 17.8% @ 5.30 / 2 9.0% @ 10.50
Match center

Estrela do Norte - Sport Brasil ES

Form 2/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Estrela do Norte 70.6% 69.9% market and model agree
Draw 17.7% 17.8% draw risk
Sport Brasil ES 11.8% 12.3%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 69.9% / 17.8% / 12.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,626 / 1,301 Estrela do Norte / Sport-ES
RD 291 / 300 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,044-2,209 / 701-1,900 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.60 market consensus · no value · model 12.3%
X 5.25 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 69.9%
Double chance
12 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 82.2%
1X 1.05 market consensus · no value · model 87.7%
X2 3.30 market consensus · no value · model 30.1%
Handicap
2 0 6.50 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.08 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.65 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.10 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.55 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.31 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.55 64.5%
yes 2.31 43.3%

Double chance

Outcome Betcity
12 1.13 88.5%
1x 1.05 95.2%
x2 3.30 30.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.71 58.5%
X 2.44 41.0%
8.70 11.5%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.27 78.7%
Over 1 1.65 60.6%
Under 0.5 3.40 29.4%
Under 1 2.10 47.6%
Match center
Estrela do Norte
W W
25.07 17:00 UTC Brazil: Capixaba 2 Standings
Estrela do Norte 1:0 Tupy
23.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Capixaba 2 Standings
Estrela do Norte 5:0 Pineyros
2 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
6 Points
Sport Brasil ES
L W W
27.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Capixaba 2 Standings
Sport Brasil ES 0:1 Rive
22.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Capixaba 2 Standings
Sport Brasil ES 5:1 Tupy
18.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Capixaba 2 Standings
Sport Brasil ES 1:0 Pineyros
2 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.7 Conceded
6 Points