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Brazil. Copa Rio. Round of 16. First leg
Brazil. Copa Rio. Round of 16. First leg
04.07.2026 15:45 UTC Match prediction
04.07.2026 15:45 UTC
Finished

Brazil. Copa Rio. Round of 16. First leg

America RJ - Serrano

Football
America RJ
America RJ
5 : 0
Finished
S
Serrano

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction America RJ - Serrano July 4, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: America RJ. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.16 / X 5.30 / 2 3.71

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 32.0%
1 65.3%
X 14.3%
2 20.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Form and head-to-head • Carioca, Serie A2

Team stats

America RJ
DWWWDDWLLL
W 4 • D 3 • L 3 (10)
Goals average:1.5 : 1.3
5 place, 13 pts
Serrano
DDWLLDDDLL
W 1 • D 5 • L 4 (10)
Goals average:0.9 : 1.4
10 place, 11 pts
Head-to-head: 1 — America RJ 0, draws 1, Serrano 0 (goals 2:2)
  • Serrano RJ — America-RJ2024-06-08 2:2

Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.

Rest and schedule

Team freshness

America RJ
Normal schedule
  • Rest days: 3
  • Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)
Serrano
No recent matches

Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.

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Match center
Start 04.07.2026 15:45 UTC
Match center

America RJ - Serrano

Form 2/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.64 market consensus · line only
X 5.30 Fonbet · line only
1 1.16 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 1.10 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.02 Fonbet · line only
X2 4.05 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 0 2.46 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.02 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.45 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.48 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.30 Fonbet · line only
Yes 3.15 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.30 76.9% 1.62 61.7%
yes 3.15 31.8% 2.16 46.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.31 76.3% 1.38 72.5% 1.10 90.9%
1x 1.18 84.8% 1.24 80.7% 1.02 98.0%
x2 1.52 65.8% 1.62 61.7% 4.05 24.7%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.90 34.5%
X 1.81 55.3%
4.70 21.3%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.60 62.5%
Under 0.5 2.20 45.5%
Match center
America RJ
L D
01.07 15:45 UTC Brazil: Carioca 2 Standings
America RJ 2:3 BonsukessoBonsukesso
13.06 12:00 UTC Brazil: Carioca 2 Standings
America RJ 2:2 OlariyaOlariya
0 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
2.5 Conceded
1 Points
Serrano
D
14.06 12:00 UTC Brazil: Carioca 2 Standings
Serrano 1:1 MarikaMarika
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAmerica RJ - Serrano

America RJ
0 matches total
Serrano
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history