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Brazil. Cearense. Serie C
Brazil. Cearense. Serie C
01.08.2026 18:00 UTC
01.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Not started

Brazil. Cearense. Serie C

Pacatuba - Vila Real

Football
P
Pacatuba
- : -
Not started
V
Vila Real

Pacatuba meet Vila Real on August 1, 2026 in the Brazil. Cearense. Serie C.

Recent form (W-D-L): Pacatuba 0-1-0, Vila Real 0-1-0. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Vila Real — 45%

Pure model vs market (2 · Vila Real): model 31% · market 67% Δ −36 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Pacatuba24.7%
X · draw29.9%
2 · Vila Real45.4%

Model estimate: win Pacatuba 24.7%, draw 29.9%, win Vila Real 45.4%. Model favourite — Vila Real.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds2.99) Score 1:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 33% on the line (odds 2.99)
  • • edge over the line +17 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Pacatuba - Vila Real August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Vila Real. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 12.70 / X 3.58 / 2 1.39

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.7%
1 7.3%
X 25.9%
2 66.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Market 1 7.3% @ 12.70 / X 25.9% @ 3.58 / 2 66.8% @ 1.39
Match center

Pacatuba - Vila Real

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Pacatuba 23.3% 24.7%
Draw 30.4% 29.9% draw risk
Vila Real 46.3% 45.4% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 24.7% / 29.9% / 45.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,519 / 1,481 Pacatuba / Vila Real
RD 291 / 291 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 937-2,101 / 898-2,063 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.37 market consensus · no value · model 45.4%
X 3.53 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
Double chance
12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 70.1%
1X 2.70 market consensus · value +47.3% · model 54.6%
X2 1.04 market consensus · no value · model 75.3%
Handicap
2 -1 1.69 market consensus · line only
2 0 1.37 market consensus · line only
1 +1 2.04 market consensus · line only
1 0 2.83 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.90 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.35 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.21 market consensus · line only
Yes 3.95 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.21 82.6%
yes 3.95 25.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.22 82.0% 1.26 79.4%
1x 2.60 38.5% 2.80 35.7%
x2 1.04 96.2% 1.04 96.2%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
13.00 7.7%
X 1.86 53.8%
2.02 49.5%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.69 59.2%
Under 0.5 2.04 49.0%
Match center
Pacatuba
D
27.07 20:00 UTC Brazil: Cearense 3 Standings
Pacatuba 0:0 Acopiara
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
0.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
1 Points
Vila Real
D
25.07 18:00 UTC Brazil: Cearense 3 Standings
Vila Real 0:0 Esporte Limoeiro
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
0.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyPacatuba - Vila Real

Pacatuba
0 matches total
Vila Real
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history