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Brazil: Championship Brazilii D - Playoff
Brazil: Championship Brazilii D - Playoff
04.07.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction
04.07.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

Brazil: Championship Brazilii D - Playoff

Maguary - Iguatu

Futbol
Maguary
Maguary
2 : 3
Finished
Iguatu
Iguatu
Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

💎 «Value»

2Iguatu — odds 3.70 · edge +6.2% · 3 bookies

The model rates the probability higher than the price implies. Elevated risk/variance; the signal is not confirmed on a large sample.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Maguary - Iguatu July 4, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Iguatu. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.30 / X 5.50 / 2 1.13

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 50.2%
1 29.0%
X 12.1%
2 58.9%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Form and head-to-head • Serie D - Round of 32

Team stats

Maguary
WLDDDDWLWL
W 3 • D 4 • L 3 (10)
Goals average:0.7 : 0.5
3 place, 13 pts
Iguatu
WWDWDDDWWD
W 5 • D 5 • L 0 (10)
Goals average:1.5 : 0.9
1 place, 20 pts

Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.

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Match center
Start 04.07.2026 17:00 UTC
Match center

Maguary - Iguatu

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.13 Fonbet · line only
X 5.50 Fonbet · line only
1 2.23 market consensus · line only
Double chance
12 1.11 Fonbet · line only
1X 4.80 Fonbet · line only
X2 1.19 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 +1 1.37 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.55 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 2.80 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.45 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.67 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.08 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.85 54.1% 1.70 58.8%
yes 1.85 54.1% 2.03 49.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.38 72.5% 1.42 70.4% 1.11 90.1%
1x 1.19 84.0% 1.22 82.0% 4.80 20.8%
x2 1.54 64.9% 1.60 62.5% 1.19 84.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.07 32.6%
X 1.78 56.2%
4.49 22.3%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.61 62.1%
Under 0.5 2.18 45.9%
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMaguary - Iguatu

Maguary
0 matches total
Iguatu
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history