Match center
Start
04.07.2026 17:00 UTC
04.07.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished
Brazil: Championship Brazilii D - Playoff
Nasonal-AM - Kepital
N
Nasonal-AM
1
:
0
Finished
K
Kepital
Match signals
Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
💎 «Value»
2Kepital — odds 4.20 · edge +6.9% · 3 bookies
The model rates the probability higher than the price implies. Elevated risk/variance; the signal is not confirmed on a large sample.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Nasonal-AM - Kepital July 4, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 6.50 / X 1.20 / 2 9.50
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.2%
1
14.1%
X
76.3%
2
9.6%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Form and head-to-head • Serie D - Round of 32
Team stats
Nasonal-AM
DWLLWLDWWD
W 4 • D 3 • L 3 (10)
Goals average:1.1 : 0.9
2 place, 20 pts
Kepital
WDDWWDWWDW
W 6 • D 4 • L 0 (10)
Goals average:2.1 : 0.8
1 place, 23 pts
Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.
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Match center
Nasonal-AM - Kepital
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
9.50
Fonbet · line only
X
1.20
Fonbet · line only
1
6.50
Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12
3.85
Fonbet · line only
1X
1.05
Fonbet · line only
X2
1.09
Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 0
2.60
Fonbet · line only
1 0
1.45
Fonbet · line only
Total
Under 2.5
1.01
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.01
Fonbet · line only
Yes
2.44
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.01 99.0% | 1.49 67.1% |
| yes | 11.00 9.1% | 2.44 41.0% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.37 73.0% | 1.41 70.9% | 3.85 26.0% |
| 1x | 1.16 86.2% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.05 95.2% |
| x2 | 1.62 61.7% | 1.69 59.2% | 1.09 91.7% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.92 34.3% | |
| X | 1.72 58.1% |
| 5.40 18.5% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.69 59.2% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.04 49.0% |
Match center
Full head-to-head historyNasonal-AM - Kepital
Nasonal-AM
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals