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Brazil. Serie B

28.07.2026 20:30 UTC Match prediction

28.07.2026 20:30 UTC

Finished

Brazil. Serie B

Ponte Preta - ASA Arapiraca U20

Football

Ponte Preta

0 : 1

Finished

ASA Arapiraca U20

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 ASA Arapiraca U20 — 48%

Pure model vs market (2 · ASA Arapiraca U20): model 42% · market 48% Δ −6 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Ponte Preta23.2%

X · draw29.3%

2 · ASA Arapiraca U2047.5%

Model estimate: win Ponte Preta 23.2%, draw 29.3%, win ASA Arapiraca U20 47.5%. Model favourite — ASA Arapiraca U20.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2ASA Arapiraca U20 (odds9.50) Score 0:1 Under 2.5 (odds1.48) ✓ Handicap H2 +1.5 (odds1.42) ✓ confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct · exact score

• liniya na pik P2 3.70→9.00 (udlinilas — rynok dreyfuet vs)
• Model backs Atletik: probability 50% vs 11% on the line (odds 9.50)
• edge over the line +39 pp — value pick
• Expected score 0:1
• Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~1 goals
• at line 2.5 (odds 1.48)
• Handicap F2 +1.5: score forecast 0:1 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 1.42).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ponte Preta - ASA Arapiraca U20 July 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like ASA Arapiraca U20.

Strongest: ASA Arapiraca U20 - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.09 / X 3.15 / 2 1.94
1X2 market: Ponte Preta 22.7% / X 29.5% / ASA Arapiraca U20 47.8%
Glicko: Ponte Preta 23.2% / X 29.3% / ASA Arapiraca U20 47.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.7%

1 22.7%

X 29.5%

2 47.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 1 2.20 ↑ 8.00

1X2 X 2.75 ↓ 1.14

1X2 2 3.70 ↑ 10.50

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Ponte Preta 1 : 2 ASA Arapiraca U20

13.64

X3.10

22.10

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center

Start 28.07.2026 20:30 UTC

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model ASA Arapiraca U20 48%

💹 Market ASA Arapiraca U20 4779%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Ponte Preta - ASA Arapiraca U20

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants Line Movement

More needed

H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Overview championat, soccer365

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:1

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 47.5% fact: away hit / ROI 100.0% / Brier 0.415 / LogLoss 0.744

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 47.5% fact: away hit / ROI 100.0% / Brier 0.415 / LogLoss 0.744

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Ponte Preta 22.6% 23.2%

Draw 29.6% 29.3% draw risk

ASA Arapiraca U20 47.9% 47.5% market and model agree

1X2: 15 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 23.2% / 29.3% / 47.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,342 / 1,554 Ponte Preta / ASA Arapiraca U20

RD 300 / 161 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 743-1,942 / 1,233-1,876 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.94 market consensus · no value · model 47.5%

X 3.15 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 4.10 market consensus · no value · model 23.2%

Double chance

12 1.32 market consensus · no value · model 70.7%

1X 1.80 market consensus · no value · model 52.5%

X2 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 76.8%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.93 market consensus · line only

2 0 1.36 market consensus · line only

1 +0.5 1.78 market consensus · line only

1 0 2.90 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.31 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.58 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.70 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.11 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
	4.00 25.0%	4.20 23.8%	4.50 22.2%	4.10 24.4%	4.20 23.8%	4.00 25.0%
X	3.20 31.3%	3.15 31.8%	3.10 32.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.10 32.3%
	1.96 51.0%	1.93 51.8%	1.90 52.6%	2.00 50.0%	1.91 52.4%	1.87 53.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	Leon
no	1.70 58.8%
yes	2.11 47.4%

Double chance

Outcome	Betcity
12	1.32 75.8%
1x	1.80 55.6%
x2	1.20 83.3%

Exact Score

Outcome	10Bet
0_0	7.00 14.3%
0_1	5.00 20.0%
0_2	7.00 14.3%
0_3	13.00 7.7%
0_4	34.00 2.9%
0_5	81.00 1.2%
1_0	8.00 12.5%
1_1	5.50 18.2%
1_2	7.00 14.3%
1_3	13.00 7.7%
1_4	34.00 2.9%
1_5	81.00 1.2%
2_0	17.00 5.9%
2_1	11.00 9.1%
2_2	15.00 6.7%
2_3	29.00 3.5%
2_4	61.00 1.6%
3_0	46.00 2.2%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-0-1, avg 3.0 gls

2026-03-22 · Ponte Preta 1:2 Atletik Klub

Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 3.85 (Pari) · X 3.3 (Betcity) · 2 2.03 (Betcity)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Pari	3.85	3.05	1.9
Winline	3.75	3.1	2
Fonbet	3.85	3.05	1.9
Betcity	3.3	3.3	2.03
Liga Stavok	3.75	3.1	2.01

Source: ruscore · line comparison

Ponte Preta

L L L L L

22.07 20:30 UTC+0 Brazil: Championship Brazil V Standings

Ponte Preta 2:3 Operario

18.07 17:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Championship Brazil V Standings

Ponte Preta 1:2 Goyas

08.07 21:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Championship Brazil V Standings

Ponte Preta 1:2 Kriciuma

02.07 22:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Championship Brazil V Standings

Ponte Preta 0:2 Fortaleza

14.06 12:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Championship Brazil V Standings

Ponte Preta 0:3 Zhuventude

0 Wins

0 Draws

5 Losses

0.8 Scored

2.4 Conceded

0 Points

ASA Arapiraca U20

W D D D D

23.07 20:30 UTC Brazil: Championship Brazil V Standings

ASA Arapiraca U20 2:1 San-Bernardo

18.07 19:00 UTC Brazil: Championship Brazil V Standings

ASA Arapiraca U20 0:0 Atletiko Goyaniense

13.07 21:30 UTC Brazil: Championship Brazil V Standings

ASA Arapiraca U20 0:0 Seara

07.07 21:00 UTC Brazil: Championship Brazil V Standings

ASA Arapiraca U20 0:0 Operario

14.06 17:00 UTC Brazil: Championship Brazil V Standings

ASA Arapiraca U20 1:1 Goyas

1 Wins

4 Draws

0 Losses

0.6 Scored

0.4 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyPonte Preta - ASA Arapiraca U20

Ponte Preta

0 matches total

ASA Arapiraca U20

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Ponte Preta - ASA Arapiraca U20

AI match prediction Ponte Preta - ASA Arapiraca U20 July 28, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Line movement

Score prediction

Buy the full AI analysis

Ponte Preta - ASA Arapiraca U20

What data is collected and where it is shown

Match markets

Match Winner

Both teams to score

Double chance

Exact Score

Form & head-to-head

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Match history