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Brazil: Copa Governo (Sergipe) Standings
Brazil: Copa Governo (Sergipe) Standings
05.08.2026 22:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
05.08.2026 22:00 UTC
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Brazil: Copa Governo (Sergipe) Standings

Falkon - Desportiva Aracaju

Football
F
Falkon
- : -
Not started
D
Desportiva Aracaju

Falkon face Desportiva Aracaju on August 5, 2026 in the Brazil: Copa Governo (Sergipe) Standings.

Recent form (W-D-L): Falkon 2-0-0, Desportiva Aracaju 1-1-0. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Falkon — 64%

Pure model vs market (1 · Falkon): model 53% · market 64% Δ −11 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Falkon ✓ Pick63.8%
market64%
X · draw20.9%
market21%
2 · Desportiva Aracaju15.4%
market15%

Model estimate: win Falkon 63.8%, draw 20.9%, win Desportiva Aracaju 15.4%. Model favourite — Falkon.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Falkon (odds1.85) Score 2:1 confidence 54%
  • • Model backs Falkon: probability 54% vs 54% on the line (odds 1.85)
  • • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Falkon - Desportiva Aracaju August 5, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Falkon. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.46 / X 4.40 / 2 6.20

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.8% 3 books · best price +2.8%
1 ✓ Pick 64.4%
X 20.8%
2 14.8%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Falkon 3 : 0 Desportiva Aracaju
11.47
X3.90
26.08

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 05.08.2026 22:00 UTC
Market 1 63.8% @ 1.46 / X 21.2% @ 4.40 / 2 15.0% @ 6.20
Match center

Falkon - Desportiva Aracaju

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Falkon 64.4% 63.8% market and model agree
Draw 20.8% 20.9% draw risk
Desportiva Aracaju 14.8% 15.4%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 63.8% / 20.9% / 15.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,783 / 1,603 Falkon / Desportiva Aracaju
RD 219 / 252 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,346-2,220 / 1,099-2,107 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.13 market consensus · no value · model 15.4%
X 4.26 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.43 market consensus · no value · model 63.8%
Double chance
12 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 79.1%
1X 1.08 market consensus · no value · model 84.6%
X2 2.64 market consensus · no value · model 36.2%
Handicap
2 +1 1.90 market consensus · line only
2 0 4.85 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.80 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.14 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.99 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.71 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.62 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.17 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.62 61.7%
yes 2.17 46.1%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.16 86.2% 1.17 85.5%
1x 1.07 93.5% 1.09 91.7%
x2 2.57 38.9% 2.70 37.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.07 48.3%
X 2.13 47.0%
6.30 15.9%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.95 51.3%
Under 1 1.76 56.8%
Match center
Falkon
W W
01.08 19:00 UTC Brazil: Copa Governo (Sergipe) Standings
Falkon 2:1 Lagarto
29.07 20:00 UTC Brazil: Copa Governo (Sergipe) Standings
Falkon 3:0 GuaraniGuarani
2 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.5 Scored
0.5 Conceded
6 Points
Desportiva Aracaju
W D
01.08 19:00 UTC Brazil: Copa Governo (Sergipe) Standings
Desportiva Aracaju 3:1 America SE
29.07 17:00 UTC Brazil: Copa Governo (Sergipe) Standings
Desportiva Aracaju 0:0 Atletiko Gloriense
1 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.5 Scored
0.5 Conceded
4 Points