PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
Brazil. Copa Governo do Estado de Sergipe. Group stage
Brazil. Copa Governo do Estado de Sergipe. Group stage
29.07.2026 20:00 UTC
29.07.2026 20:00 UTC
Not started

Brazil. Copa Governo do Estado de Sergipe. Group stage

Falkon - Guarani Asuncion

Football
F
Falkon
- : -
Not started
Guarani Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Falkon — 67%

Pure model vs market (1 · Falkon): model 43% · market 70% Δ −27 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Falkon ✓ Pick66.5%
market70%
X · draw20.4%
market21%
2 · Guarani Asuncion13.1%
market9%

Model estimate: win Falkon 66.5%, draw 20.4%, win Guarani Asuncion 13.1%. Model favourite — Falkon.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Falkon (odds1.33) Score 2:0 confidence 67%
  • • Model backs Falkon: probability 67% vs 75% on the line (odds 1.33)
  • • no edge over the line (-8 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Falkon - Guarani Asuncion July 29, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Falkon. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.34 / X 4.52 / 2 10.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%
1 ✓ Pick 70.2%
X 20.8%
2 9.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 29.07.2026 20:00 UTC
Match center

Falkon - Guarani Asuncion

Form 0/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Falkon 68.1% 66.5% market and model agree
Draw 20.3% 20.4% draw risk
Guarani Asuncion 11.7% 13.1%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 66.5% / 20.4% / 13.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,529 Falkon / Guarani Asuncion
RD 350 / 134 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 1,261-1,797 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.80 market consensus · no value · model 13.1%
X 4.51 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.32 market consensus · no value · model 66.5%
Double chance
12 1.15 market consensus · no value · model 79.6%
1X 1.04 market consensus · no value · model 86.9%
X2 2.90 market consensus · no value · model 33.5%
Total
Over 2.5 2.06 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.67 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.36 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.92 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.36 73.5%
yes 2.92 34.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.13 88.5% 1.16 86.2%
1x 1.02 98.0% 1.05 95.2%
x2 2.80 35.7% 3.00 33.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.81 55.3%
X 2.13 47.0%
11.20 8.9%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 2.07 48.3%
Under 1 1.67 59.9%
Match center
Guarani Asuncion
W L L L D
27.07 21:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Championship Brazil C - Pervyy etap Standings
Guarani Asuncion 3:1 Internasonal LimeyraInternasonal Limeyra
26.07 19:30 UTC+0 Paraguay: Copa de Primera - Clausura Standings
Guarani Asuncion 1:2 Sportivo Lukeno
12.07 17:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Championship Brazil C - Pervyy etap Standings
Guarani Asuncion 2:3 PaysanduPaysandu
12.07 16:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Mineiro 2 Standings
Guarani Asuncion 2:4 Boa
04.07 21:30 UTC+0 Brazil: Championship Brazil C - Pervyy etap Standings
Guarani Asuncion 0:0 FlorestaFloresta
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.6 Scored
2.0 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyFalkon - Guarani Asuncion

Falkon
0 matches total
Guarani Asuncion
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history