Brazil. Copa Governo do Estado de Sergipe. Group stage
Lagarto take on Falcon on August 1, 2026 in the Brazil. Copa Governo do Estado de Sergipe. Group stage.
Recent form (W-D-L): Lagarto 1-0-0, Falcon 1-0-0. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Lagarto — 51%
Pure model vs market (1 · Lagarto): model 43% · market 52% Δ −9 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Lagarto 51.4%, draw 25.8%, win Falcon 22.9%. Model favourite — Lagarto.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.74 57.5% |
| yes | 1.99 50.3% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.22 82.0% | 1.26 79.4% |
| 1x | 1.16 86.2% | 1.19 84.0% |
| x2 | 1.87 53.5% | 1.96 51.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.34 42.7% | |
| X | 2.08 48.1% |
| 4.95 20.2% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 2.02 49.5% |
| Under 1 | 1.71 58.5% |
Guarani
Full head-to-head historyLagarto - Falcon
The Lagarto - Falcon breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
