Match center
Start
04.07.2026 15:45 UTC
04.07.2026 15:45 UTC
Finished
Brazil. Copa Rio. Round of 16. First leg
Marika - Perolas Negras
2
:
0
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Marika - Perolas Negras 4 июля 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Marika. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.09 / X 6.20 / 2 4.10
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 32.3%
1
69.4%
X
12.2%
2
18.4%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Form and head-to-head • Carioca, Serie A2
Team stats
Marika
WDWWWLDDWD
W 5 • D 4 • L 1 (10)
Goals average:1 : 0.7
2 place, 21 pts
Perolas Negras
LLWLWWWLWW
W 6 • D 0 • L 4 (10)
Goals average:1.9 : 1.3
4 place, 16 pts
Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.
Rest and schedule
Team freshness
Marika
Well rested- Rest days: 7
- Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)
Perolas Negras
No recent matches
Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.
Statistics
Totals and BTTS trends
| Marika | Perolas Negras | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 33% | — |
| Average total | 2 | — |
| Both teams to score (BTTS) | 67% | — |
| Matches counted | 6 | — |
% of matches with a total over 2.5, average total goals and % of matches where both teams scored — over each team recent matches. For reference.
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Match center
Marika - Perolas Negras
Form
1/0
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.01
market consensus · line only
X
6.20
Fonbet · line only
1
1.09
Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12
1.06
Fonbet · line only
1X
1.14
Fonbet · line only
X2
5.20
Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 +1
1.51
market consensus · line only
2 0
2.86
market consensus · line only
1 -1
2.39
market consensus · line only
1 0
1.01
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.42
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.02
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.64
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.12
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.64 61.0% |
| yes | 2.12 47.2% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.27 78.7% | 1.34 74.6% | 1.06 94.3% |
| 1x | 1.14 87.7% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.14 87.7% |
| x2 | 1.67 59.9% | 1.78 56.2% | 5.20 19.2% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| П1 | 2.74 36.5% |
| Х | 1.82 55.0% |
| П2 | 5.10 19.6% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| ТБ 0.5 | 1.59 62.9% |
| ТБ 1 | 2.24 44.6% |
| ТМ 0.5 | 2.22 45.1% |
| ТМ 1 | 1.58 63.3% |
Match center
Marika
D
Marika
1:1
Serrano
0
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
1.0
Scored
1.0
Conceded
1
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyMarika - Perolas Negras
Marika
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals