Brazil. Copa Paulista. Group stage
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 São Caetano — 36%
Pure model vs market (1 · São Caetano): model 46% · market 35% Δ +11 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win São Caetano 36.1%, draw 33.7%, win EC São Bernardo 30.2%. Model favourite — São Caetano.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.86 53.8% |
| yes | 1.84 54.4% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.29 77.5% | 1.34 74.6% |
| 1x | 1.39 71.9% | 1.44 69.4% |
| x2 | 1.39 71.9% | 1.44 69.4% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.36 29.8% | |
| X | 1.98 50.5% |
| 3.26 30.7% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 2.04 49.0% |
| Under 1 | 1.69 59.2% |
Full head-to-head historySão Caetano - EC São Bernardo
The São Caetano - EC São Bernardo breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
