Brazil: Gaucho 2 Standings
Apafut - Esportivo
Apafut go head-to-head with Esportivo on August 6, 2026 in the Brazil: Gaucho 2 Standings.
Recent form (W-D-L): Apafut 0-0-1, Esportivo 0-1-0. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Apafut — 49%
Model estimate: win Apafut 48.9%, draw 20.0%, win Esportivo 31.0%. Model favourite — Apafut.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
- • Model backs Apafut: probability 50% vs 40% on the line (odds 2.48)
- • edge over the line +10 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Apafut - Esportivo August 6, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.85 / X 3.00 / 2 2.52
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.Odds source: consensus of 2 books (Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Apafut - Esportivo
What data is collected and where it is shown
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.59 62.9% |
| yes | 2.21 45.3% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Betcity |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.34 74.6% |
| 1x | 1.49 67.1% |
| x2 | 1.38 72.5% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.85 26.0% | |
| X | 1.78 56.2% |
| 3.46 28.9% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.63 61.4% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.14 46.7% |
Guarani
Full head-to-head historyApafut - Esportivo
Match history
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The Apafut - Esportivo breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form