Brazil. Copa Rio. Round of 16. Second leg
Bahia face Nova Iguacu on August 5, 2026 in the Brazil. Copa Rio. Round of 16. Second leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): Bahia 0-1-0, Nova Iguacu 0-1-0. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Nova Iguacu — 38%
Pure model vs market (2 · Nova Iguacu): model 37% · market 38% Δ −1 pp model estimate matches the market
Model estimate: win Bahia 30.0%, draw 32.0%, win Nova Iguacu 37.9%. Model favourite — Nova Iguacu.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
score 0:1 · 90'
Current match situation. Updates every ~3 min.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.20 83.3% | 1.73 57.8% |
| yes | 3.85 26.0% | 2.00 50.0% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.34 74.6% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.07 93.5% |
| 1x | 1.46 68.5% | 1.51 66.2% | 7.50 13.3% |
| x2 | 1.28 78.1% | 1.32 75.8% | 1.02 98.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 4.22 23.7% | |
| X | 1.79 55.9% |
| 3.18 31.5% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.59 62.9% |
| Over 1 | 2.11 47.4% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.22 45.1% |
| Under 1 | 1.65 60.6% |
Bahia
Bangu
Amerika RZh
Full head-to-head historyBahia - Nova Iguacu
The Bahia - Nova Iguacu breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
