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Brazil. Copa Rio. Round of 16. Second leg

05.08.2026 18:00 UTC

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction

05.08.2026 18:00 UTC

Match in progress

Brazil. Copa Rio. Round of 16. Second leg

CFRJ / Maricá - Boavista SC

Football

CFRJ / Maricá

- : -

Match in progress

Boavista SC

CFRJ / Maricá take on Boavista SC on August 5, 2026 in the Brazil. Copa Rio. Round of 16. Second leg.

Recent form (W-D-L): CFRJ / Maricá 1-0-0, Boavista SC 1-0-0. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 CFRJ / Maricá — 35%

Pure model vs market (1 · CFRJ / Maricá): model 35% · market 35% Δ 0 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · CFRJ / Maricá35.0%

X · draw32.0%

2 · Boavista SC33.0%

Model estimate: win CFRJ / Maricá 35.0%, draw 32.0%, win Boavista SC 33.0%. Model favourite — CFRJ / Maricá.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Boavista SC (odds2.47) Score 0:1 confidence 50%

• Model backs Boavishta: probability 50% vs 40% on the line (odds 2.47)
• edge over the line +10 pp — value pick
• Expected score 0:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction CFRJ / Maricá - Boavista SC August 5, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: CFRJ / Maricá. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.12 / X 5.90 / 2 2.80

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.9% 3 books

1 35.0%

X 32.5%

2 32.5%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Copa Rio

League table

CFRJ / Maricá

#104 ptsGP 21-1-03:0

Boavista SC

#66 ptsGP 22-0-05:0

Best price across 10 books

1 2.75 Dafabet

X 3.10 Bet365

2 2.75 William Hill

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

CFRJ / Maricá

W-D-L 5-4-1 Scored 1.48 Conceded 0.38 xG 1.37 xGA 0.81 Corners 5.0

Boavista SC

W-D-L 2-2-4 Scored 1.43 Conceded 0.94 xG 1.80 xGA 0.55 Corners 3.0

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

LIVE

Now in play

score 1:0 · 88'

Current match situation. Updates every ~3 min.

LIVE

1X2 probabilities (live, from the line)

88'

82% 16% 2%

CFRJ / Maricá (1) Draw (X) Boavista SC (2)

Implied probabilities from the Fonbet live line (1/odds, normalized). For reference.

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Match center

Start 05.08.2026 18:00 UTC

Market 1 62.9% @ 1.12 / X 11.9% @ 5.90 / 2 25.2% @ 2.80

Match center

CFRJ / Maricá - Boavista SC

Form 1/1 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants Line

More needed

H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Movement Line history

Overview championat, soccer365

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

CFRJ / Maricá 35.0% 35.0% market and model agree

Draw 32.5% 32.0% draw risk

Boavista SC 32.5% 33.0%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 35.0% / 32.0% / 33.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,540 / 1,708 Marica / Boavista Saquarema

RD 146 / 246 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,249-1,831 / 1,217-2,200 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.77 market consensus · no value · model 33.0%

X 5.90 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.12 Fonbet · no value · model 35.0%

Double chance

12 1.09 Fonbet · no value · model 68.0%

1X 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 67.0%

X2 5.10 Fonbet · weak value +231.4% · model 65.0%

Handicap

2 0 9.00 Fonbet · line only

1 0 1.03 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 8.50 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 1.03 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.40 Fonbet · line only

Yes 2.75 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	1.40 71.4%	1.86 53.8%
yes	2.75 36.4%	1.84 54.4%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
12	1.34 74.6%	1.38 72.5%	1.09 91.7%
1x	1.34 74.6%	1.38 72.5%	1.02 98.0%
x2	1.39 71.9%	1.44 69.4%	5.10 19.6%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	3.32 30.1%
X	1.88 53.2%
	3.60 27.8%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 0.5	1.56 64.1%
Over 1	2.14 46.7%
Under 0.5	2.28 43.9%
Under 1	1.63 61.4%

Match center

CFRJ / Maricá

22.07 15:45 UTC Brazil: Kopa Rio

CFRJ / Maricá 3:0 Perolas Negras

1 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

3.0 Scored

0.0 Conceded

3 Points

Boavista SC

22.07 17:00 UTC Brazil: Kopa Rio

Boavista SC 4:0 CEAC/Araruama

1 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

4.0 Scored

0.0 Conceded

3 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyCFRJ / Maricá - Boavista SC

CFRJ / Maricá

0 matches total

Boavista SC

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

CFRJ / Maricá - Boavista SC

AI match prediction CFRJ / Maricá - Boavista SC August 5, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Statistics and model

Now in play

1X2 probabilities (live, from the line)

Buy the full AI analysis

CFRJ / Maricá - Boavista SC

What data is collected and where it is shown

Match markets

Both teams to score

Double chance

First Half Winner

Goals Over/Under First Half

Match history