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31.07.2026 11:00 UTC
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31.07.2026 11:00 UTC
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Brazil: Paulista B - Playoff
Independente SP - Flamengo SP
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:
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Not started
F
Flamengo SP
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Independente SP — 38%
Pure model vs market (1 · Independente SP): model 47% · market 40% Δ +7 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Independente SP 38.0%, draw 26.3%, win Flamengo SP 35.7%. Model favourite — Independente SP.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Xdraw (odds3.48)
Score 1:1
confidence 50%
- • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 29% on the line (odds 3.48)
- • edge over the line +21 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Independente SP - Flamengo SP July 31, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: Independente SP. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.50 / X 3.60 / 2 3.10
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 0.0%
1
40.0%
X
27.8%
2
32.2%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Independente SP - Flamengo SP
Form
5/4
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
H2H
Line
More needed
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Independente SP
37.5%
38.0%
market and model agree
Draw
26.5%
26.3%
draw risk
Flamengo SP
36.0%
35.7%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
38.0% / 26.3% / 35.7%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,699 / 1,643
Independente SP / Flamengo SP
RD
300 / 157
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,100-2,299 / 1,329-1,957
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.72
market consensus · no value · model 35.7%
X
3.48
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.33
market consensus · no value · model 38.0%
Double chance
12
1.25
market consensus · no value · model 73.7%
1X
1.37
market consensus · no value · model 64.3%
X2
1.58
market consensus · no value · model 62.0%
Handicap
2 0
2.03
market consensus · line only
1 0
1.73
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.74
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.98
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.27
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.56
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.27 44.1% |
| yes | 1.56 64.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.25 80.0% | 1.24 80.7% |
| 1x | 1.41 70.9% | 1.32 75.8% |
| x2 | 1.44 69.4% | 1.71 58.5% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.11 32.2% | |
| X | 2.17 46.1% |
| 3.05 32.8% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.66 60.2% |
| Under 1 | 2.09 47.9% |
Match center
Independente SP
L
W
W
W
L
Independente SP
0:1
Flamengo SP
Independente SP
2:1
Paulinense
Independente SP
1:0
Paulinense
Independente SP
2:0
Tupa
Independente SP
0:2
San-Karlos
San-Karlos
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
1.0
Scored
0.8
Conceded
9
Points
Flamengo SP
W
W
W
W
Flamengo SP
1:0
Independente SP
Independente SP
Flamengo SP
3:1
Matonense
Flamengo SP
1:0
Matonense
Flamengo SP
2:1
Odeks-SP
4
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
1.8
Scored
0.5
Conceded
12
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyIndependente SP - Flamengo SP
Independente SP
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Independente SP - Flamengo SP breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form