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Brazil: Paulista B - Playoff
Brazil: Paulista B - Playoff
05.07.2026 11:00 UTC Match prediction
05.07.2026 11:00 UTC
Finished

Brazil: Paulista B - Playoff

Independente SP - Tupa

Futbol
Independente SP
Independente SP
2 : 0
Finished
T
Tupa

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Independente SP - Tupa July 5, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Independente SP. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.09 / X 2.70 / 2 4.30

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 52.0%
1 60.3%
X 24.4%
2 15.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Form and head-to-head • Paulista Serie B - Round of 16

Team stats

Independente SP
WWWWWWLLWW
W 8 • D 0 • L 2 (10)
Goals average:3.7 : 0.7
1 place, 24 pts
Tupa
LWWWLDLWLL
W 4 • D 1 • L 5 (10)
Goals average:1.4 : 1.4
4 place, 13 pts
Head-to-head: 1 — Independente SP 1, draws 0, Tupa 0 (goals 2:0)
  • Tupã — Independente SP2026-06-28 0:2

Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.

Clubs and venues

Team reference

Independente SP
  • Tombva
  • Founded in 1928
Tupa
No data

Reference data on clubs and venues: Wikidata.

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Match center
Start 05.07.2026 11:00 UTC
Match center

Independente SP - Tupa

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.30 Fonbet · line only
X 2.70 Fonbet · line only
1 1.09 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 1.40 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.20 Fonbet · line only
X2 5.70 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 0 4.85 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 3.10 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.30 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.13 Fonbet · line only
Yes 4.80 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet
no 1.13 88.5%
yes 4.80 20.8%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.11 90.1% 1.16 86.2% 1.40 71.4%
1x 1.01 99.0% 1.06 94.3% 1.20 83.3%
x2 2.65 37.7% 2.90 34.5% 5.70 17.5%

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
2.00 50.0% 2.04 49.0% 1.04 96.2%
— — 3.50 28.6%
— — 4.60 21.7%
— — 10.50 9.5%
1.13 88.5% 1.14 87.7% —
1.67 59.9% 1.69 59.2% 8.50 11.8%
— — 7.80 12.8%
— — 1.25 80.0%
— — 1.14 87.7%
— — 1.01 99.0%
4.80 20.8% 4.90 20.4% 11.50 8.7%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 0.5 — — 1.23 81.3%
Over 1.5 — — 1.35 74.1%
Over 2.5 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 3.10 32.3%
Over 3.5 — — 5.20 19.2%
Over 4.5 — — 11.00 9.1%
Over 5.5 — — 9.00 11.1%
Under 0.5 — — 3.55 28.2%
Under 1.5 — — 2.90 34.5%
Under 2.5 1.98 50.5% 2.00 50.0% 1.30 76.9%
Under 3.5 — — 1.11 90.1%
Under 4.5 — — 1.01 99.0%
Under 5.5 — — 1.03 97.1%
Match center

Full head-to-head historyIndependente SP - Tupa

Independente SP
0 matches total
Tupa
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history