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Brazil. U20. Paulista
Brazil. U20. Paulista
31.07.2026 16:00 UTC
31.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Not started

Brazil. U20. Paulista

Capivariano U20 - Porto Football U20

Football
C
Capivariano U20
- : -
Not started
Porto Football U20
Porto Football U20
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Capivariano U20 — 70%

Pure model vs market (1 · Capivariano U20): model 60% · market 70% Δ −10 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Capivariano U20 ✓ Pick69.8%
market70%
X · draw18.0%
market18%
2 · Porto Football U2012.2%
market12%

Model estimate: win Capivariano U20 69.8%, draw 18.0%, win Porto Football U20 12.2%. Model favourite — Capivariano U20.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Capivariano U20 - Porto Football U20 July 31, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Capivariano U20. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.35 / X 5.20 / 2 7.60

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.5%
1 ✓ Pick 69.6%
X 18.1%
2 12.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 31.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Match center

Capivariano U20 - Porto Football U20

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Capivariano U20 70.5% 69.8% market and model agree
Draw 17.8% 18.0% draw risk
Porto Football U20 11.8% 12.2%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 69.8% / 18.0% / 12.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,579 / 1,175 Capivariano U20 / Porto Football U20
RD 183 / 184 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,214-1,945 / 808-1,543 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.25 market consensus · no value · model 12.2%
X 4.92 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 69.8%
Double chance
12 1.09 market consensus · no value · model 82.0%
1X 1.02 market consensus · no value · model 87.8%
X2 3.10 market consensus · no value · model 30.2%
Handicap
2 0 6.30 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.07 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.55 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.23 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.87 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.83 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.87 53.5%
yes 1.83 54.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet
12 1.09 91.7%
1x 1.02 98.0%
x2 3.10 32.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.81 55.3%
X 2.46 40.7%
6.60 15.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.55 64.5%
Over 1.5 2.24 44.6%
Under 1 2.30 43.5%
Under 1.5 1.58 63.3%
Match center
Capivariano U20
W D D D W
17.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Capivariano U20 2:0 Referencia U20Referencia U20
11.07 11:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Capivariano U20 2:2 Palmeyras U20Palmeyras U20
03.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Capivariano U20 2:2 Ituano U20
12.06 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Capivariano U20 0:0 XV de Jau U20XV de Jau U20
05.06 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Capivariano U20 2:1 Sfera U20Sfera U20
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Porto Football U20
L L L L L
26.07 11:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Porto Football U20 0:1 Referencia U20Referencia U20
18.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Porto Football U20 1:3 Bragantino U20Bragantino U20
12.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Porto Football U20 0:1 Agua Santa U20Agua Santa U20
05.07 11:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Porto Football U20 0:1 Palmeyras U20Palmeyras U20
26.06 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Porto Football U20 0:1 Osasko U20Osasko U20
0 Wins
0 Draws
5 Losses
0.2 Scored
1.4 Conceded
0 Points