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Brazil. U20. Paulista
Brazil. U20. Paulista
30.07.2026 16:00 UTC
30.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Not started

Brazil. U20. Paulista

Referencia U20 - Guarani U20

Football
Referencia U20
Referencia U20
- : -
Not started
Guarani U20
Guarani U20
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Guarani U20 — 63%

1 · Referencia U2019.9%
market10%
X · draw17.4%
market73%
2 · Guarani U20 ✓ Pick62.8%
market17%

Model estimate: win Referencia U20 19.9%, draw 17.4%, win Guarani U20 62.8%. Model favourite — Guarani U20.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Referencia U20 - Guarani U20 July 30, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 9.00 / X 1.25 / 2 5.30

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.0%
1 10.1%
X 72.7%
2 ✓ Pick 17.2%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 8.50 ↑ 9.00
1X2 X 1.25 → 1.25
1X2 P2 1.08 ↑ 5.30

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 30.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Match center

Referencia U20 - Guarani U20

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Referencia U20 10.1% 19.9%
Draw 72.7% 17.4% draw risk
Guarani U20 17.2% 62.8% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 19.9% / 17.4% / 62.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,345 / 1,889 Referencia U20 / Guarani U20
RD 173 / 193 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 999-1,691 / 1,502-2,275 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.30 Fonbet · weak value +232.6% · model 62.8%
X 1.25 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 9.00 Fonbet · no value · model 19.9%
Double chance
12 3.65 Fonbet · weak value +201.6% · model 82.6%
1X 1.12 Fonbet · no value · model 37.2%
X2 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 80.1%
Total
Over 2.5 3.55 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.25 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Double chance

Outcome Fonbet
12 3.65 27.4%
1x 1.12 89.3%
x2 1.03 97.1%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.20 83.3%
4.00 25.0%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 1.5 2.50 40.0%
Over 2.5 3.55 28.2%
Under 1.5 1.47 68.0%
Under 2.5 1.25 80.0%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
9.00 11.1%
X 1.25 80.0%
5.30 18.9%
Match center
Referencia U20
W L L L D
26.07 11:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Referencia U20 1:0 Porto Football U20Porto Football U20
17.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Referencia U20 0:2 Kapivariano U20
05.07 11:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Referencia U20 1:4 Bragantino U20Bragantino U20
26.06 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Referencia U20 1:2 Gremio Prudente U20Gremio Prudente U20
12.06 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Referencia U20 1:1 Ituano U20
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
4 Points
Guarani U20
W W W W W
24.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Guarani U20 1:0 Tanabi U20Tanabi U20
17.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Guarani U20 4:1 Osasko U20Osasko U20
10.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Guarani U20 2:1 Maua U20Maua U20
03.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Guarani U20 2:0 Sfera U20Sfera U20
12.06 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Guarani U20 1:0 Flamengo SP U20Flamengo SP U20
5 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.4 Conceded
15 Points