Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Palmeiras SP face Internacional RS on August 9, 2026 in the Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): Palmeiras SP 3-0-1, Internacional RS 0-1-3. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Palmeiras SP — 57%
Pure model vs market (1 · Palmeiras SP): model 53% · market 58% Δ −5 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Palmeiras SP 57.2%, draw 24.8%, win Internacional RS 18.0%. Model favourite — Palmeiras SP.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.78 56.2% |
| yes | 2.05 48.8% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.26 79.4% | 1.24 80.7% |
| 1x | 1.15 87.0% | 1.14 87.7% |
| x2 | 2.20 45.5% | 2.20 45.5% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.18 45.9% | |
| X | 2.30 43.5% |
| 6.00 16.7% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.87 53.5% |
| Under 1 | 1.91 52.4% |
Palmeiras SP
Vitoriya
Atletiko Mineyro
Shapekoense
Internacional RS
Flamengo
Atletiko Paranaense
Kruzeyro
Bragantino
Full head-to-head historyPalmeiras SP - Internacional RS
The Palmeiras SP - Internacional RS breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
