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28.07.2026 22:30 UTC
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28.07.2026 22:30 UTC
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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Vitoria Salvador - Palmeyras
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Not started
P
Palmeyras
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Palmeyras — 47%
Pure model vs market (2 · Palmeyras): model 37% · market 48% Δ −11 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Vitoria Salvador 24.8%, draw 28.2%, win Palmeyras 47.0%. Model favourite — Palmeyras.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Vitoria Salvador (odds2.11)
Score 1:0
confidence 50%
- • Model backs Vitoriya: probability 50% vs 47% on the line (odds 2.11)
- • edge over the line +3 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Vitoria Salvador - Palmeyras July 28, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Palmeyras.
Line favourite market consensus: Palmeyras. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.95 / X 3.28 / 2 1.98
- 1X2 market: Vitoria Salvador 23.9% / X 28.6% / Palmeyras 47.5%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.3%
1
23.8%
X
28.7%
2
47.5%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Palmeyras 47%
💹 Market
Palmeyras 4752%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Vitoria Salvador - Palmeyras
Form
3/3
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Vitoria Salvador
23.9%
24.8%
Draw
28.5%
28.2%
draw risk
Palmeyras
47.6%
47.0%
market and model agree
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
24.8% / 28.2% / 47.0%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,540 / 1,626
Vitoria Salvador / Palmeyras
RD
161 / 225
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,218-1,862 / 1,176-2,077
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.97
market consensus · no value · model 47.0%
X
3.28
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
3.96
market consensus · no value · model 24.8%
Double chance
12
1.32
market consensus · no value · model 71.8%
1X
1.81
market consensus · no value · model 53.0%
X2
1.19
market consensus · no value · model 75.2%
Handicap
2 0
1.35
market consensus · line only
1 0
3.00
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.08
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.73
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.85 26.0% | 4.21 23.8% | 4.33 23.1% | 3.85 26.0% | 3.80 26.3% | 3.90 25.6% | |
| X | 3.30 30.3% | 3.33 30.0% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.35 29.9% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.30 30.3% |
| 1.96 51.0% | 1.98 50.5% | 1.95 51.3% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.93 51.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Betcity |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.32 75.8% |
| 1x | 1.81 55.3% |
| x2 | 1.19 84.0% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 8.00 12.5% |
| 0_1 | 5.75 17.4% |
| 0_2 | 7.50 13.3% |
| 0_3 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 0_4 | 34.00 2.9% |
| 0_5 | 81.00 1.2% |
| 1_0 | 8.50 11.8% |
| 1_1 | 5.50 18.2% |
| 1_2 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 1_3 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 1_4 | 31.00 3.2% |
| 1_5 | 71.00 1.4% |
| 2_0 | 17.00 5.9% |
| 2_1 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 2_2 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 2_3 | 23.00 4.4% |
| 2_4 | 51.00 2.0% |
| 2_5 | 101.00 1.0% |
Handicap
| Outcome | Betcity |
|---|---|
| 3.00 33.3% | |
| 1.35 74.1% |
Match center
Vitoria Salvador
D
D
W
Vitoria Salvador
1:1
Remo
Vitoria Salvador
0:0
Botafogo
Botafogo
Vitoria Salvador
1:0
Vasko da Gama
Vasko da Gama
1
Wins
2
Draws
0
Losses
0.7
Scored
0.3
Conceded
5
Points
Palmeyras
L
W
W
Palmeyras
1:2
Atletiko Mineyro
Palmeyras
3:1
Koritiba
Palmeyras
1:0
Shapekoense
Shapekoense
2
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
1.7
Scored
1.0
Conceded
6
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyVitoria Salvador - Palmeyras
Vitoria Salvador
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form