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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
21-y Round 29.07.2026 22:30 UTC Match prediction
29.07.2026 22:30 UTC 21-y Round
Finished

Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

Vitoria Salvador - Palmeyras

Football
Vitoria Salvador
Vitoria Salvador
0 : 4
Finished
P
Palmeyras
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Palmeyras — 47%

Pure model vs market (2 · Palmeyras): model 37% · market 48% Δ −11 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Vitoria Salvador24.4%
X · draw28.6%
2 · Palmeyras47.0%

Model estimate: win Vitoria Salvador 24.4%, draw 28.6%, win Palmeyras 47.0%. Model favourite — Palmeyras.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Vitoria Salvador (odds2.11) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Vitoriya: probability 50% vs 47% on the line (odds 2.11)
  • • edge over the line +3 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Vitoria Salvador - Palmeyras July 29, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Palmeyras.

Strongest: Palmeyras - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.08 / X 3.27 / 2 1.96
  • 1X2 market: Vitoria Salvador 23.1% / X 28.8% / Palmeyras 48.0%
  • Glicko: Vitoria Salvador 24.4% / X 28.6% / Palmeyras 47.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.1%
1 23.1%
X 28.8%
2 48.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 4.40 ↑ 61.00
1X2 X 3.05 ↑ 14.00
1X2 2 2.02 ↓ 1.01

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Vitoria Salvador 1 : 2 Palmeyras
14.00
X3.15
22.11

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:1/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated29.07.2026 00:18 UTC
1 21%
X 29%
2 50% ✓ favourite
Score0:2 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Away win (2)
Per AI data H2H: 2-2-1
AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 21% 29% 50% 0:2 Under 2.5 No Away win (2)

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Match center
Start 29.07.2026 22:30 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Palmeyras 50%
📐 Math model Palmeyras 47%
💹 Market Palmeyras 4804%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Vitoria Salvador - Palmeyras

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Vitoriya - Palmeyras, 30 iyulya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Brazil po futbolu (Seriya A) 2026, 21 round. Vitoriya - Palmeyras, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 3/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Lineup / squad Line
More needed
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:4
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 47.0% fact: away hit / ROI 110.0% / Brier 0.422 / LogLoss 0.755
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 47.0% fact: away hit / ROI 110.0% / Brier 0.422 / LogLoss 0.755
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Vitoria Salvador 23.4% 24.4%
Draw 28.9% 28.6% draw risk
Palmeyras 47.7% 47.0% market and model agree
1X2: 17 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 24.4% / 28.6% / 47.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,540 / 1,626 Vitoria Salvador / Palmeyras
RD 161 / 225 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,218-1,862 / 1,176-2,077 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 47.0%
X 3.26 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 4.06 market consensus · no value · model 24.4%
Double chance
12 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 71.4%
1X 1.70 market consensus · no value · model 53.0%
X2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 75.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.01 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.02 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 1.30 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.60 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.02 Fonbet · line only
Yes 10.00 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
3.85 26.0% 4.27 23.4% 4.33 23.1% 4.05 24.7% 4.20 23.8% 4.00 25.0%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.32 30.1% 3.25 30.8% 3.45 29.0% 3.20 31.3% 3.40 29.4%
1.97 50.8% 1.98 50.5% 1.95 51.3% 2.05 48.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.02 98.0% 1.80 55.6%
yes 10.00 10.0% 2.03 49.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.35 74.1% 1.34 74.6% 1.01 99.0%
1x 1.71 58.5% 1.69 59.2% 14.00 7.1%
x2 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.01 99.0%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 8.00 12.5%
0_1 5.75 17.4%
0_2 7.50 13.3%
0_3 15.00 6.7%
0_4 34.00 2.9%
0_5 81.00 1.2%
1_0 8.50 11.8%
1_1 5.50 18.2%
1_2 7.00 14.3%
1_3 13.00 7.7%
1_4 31.00 3.2%
1_5 76.00 1.3%
2_0 17.00 5.9%
2_1 10.00 10.0%
2_2 13.00 7.7%
2_3 23.00 4.4%
2_4 51.00 2.0%
2_5 101.00 1.0%
Match center
Lineup summary
  • 1 vr Lucas Arcanjo
  • 70 zsch Fabiano
  • 2 zsch Emanuel Brites
  • 25 zsch Caca
  • 36 zsch Luan Kandidu
  • 13 zsch Ramon
  • 95 pz Caique
  • 44 pz Baralyas
  • 6 pz Leandro Martines
  • 10 np Matheusinho
Vitoria Salvador

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Palmeyras

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

SStats Market - Form - H2H - Bookmakers
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-2-3, avg 2.83 gls
2026-07-30 · Vitoriya BA 0:4 Palmeyras
2026-02-05 · Vitoriya BA 1:5 Palmeyras
2025-11-19 · Vitoriya BA 0:0 Palmeyras
2025-08-03 · Vitoriya BA 2:2 Palmeyras
2024-07-27 · Vitoriya BA 2:0 Palmeyras
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 3.9 (Winline) · X 3.35 (Winline) · 2 2.04 (Betcity)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 3.8 3.3 2
Winline 3.9 3.35 2.01
Fonbet 3.8 3.3 2
Betcity 3.7 3.3 2.04
Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

31 Ball possession 69
10 Vsego udarov 15
3 Shots on target 5
2 Shots off target 7
8 Udary ot vorot 2
5 Blokirovannye udary 3
15 Shtrafnye 10
6 Corners 1
0 Offsides 2
12 Auty 12
2 Saves 3
10 Fouls 15
5 Cards total 2
3 Yellow cards 2
2 Red cards 0
0 Second yellows 0
1 Travmy 2
5 Substitutions 5
Source: ruscore
Vitoria Salvador
D D W
26.07 20:30 UTC Brazil: Seriya A Betano Standings
Vitoria Salvador 1:1 Remo
23.07 20:30 UTC Brazil: Seriya A Betano Standings
Vitoria Salvador 0:0 BotafogoBotafogo
16.07 20:30 UTC Brazil: Seriya A Betano Standings
Vitoria Salvador 1:0 Vasko da GamaVasko da Gama
1 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
0.7 Scored
0.3 Conceded
5 Points
Palmeyras
L W W
26.07 20:30 UTC Brazil: Seriya A Betano Standings
Palmeyras 1:2 Atletiko Mineyro
22.07 20:30 UTC Brazil: Seriya A Betano Standings
Palmeyras 3:1 Koritiba
31.05 17:00 UTC Brazil: Seriya A Betano Standings
Palmeyras 1:0 ShapekoenseShapekoense
2 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.7 Scored
1.0 Conceded
6 Points
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Vitoria Salvador
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Palmeyras
Vitoria Salvador Team comparison Palmeyras
20 Games 20
7 Wins 13
5 Draws 5
8 Losses 2
22 Scored 34
27 Conceded 16
26 Points 44
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
11.38 Shots on goal 16
4.1 Udary v stvor 4.55
20 Games 20
7 Wins 13
5 Draws 5
8 Losses 2
22 Scored 34
27 Conceded 16

Vitoriya Palmeyras 20 Games 20 7 Wins 13 5 Draws 5 8 Losses 2 22 Scored 34 27 Conceded 16 26 Points 44 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 11.38 Shots on goal 16 4.1 Udary v stvor 4.55 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.05 Uglovye 6 1.05 Offsaydy 2.1 12.75 Foly 13.15 45.95 % vladeniya myachom 50.8 2.3 Warnings 2.05 0.05 Sendoffs 0.1 Goly Maurisio Dzhon Aryas 0:1 45+1' Fabiano 0:2 45+6' Dzhon Aryas Khoakin Pikeres 0:3 70' Ramon Sosa 0:4 84' Nakazaniya Marlon Freytas 14' Maurisio 27' Leandro Martines 32' Caca 37' Luan Kandidu 40' Fabiano 56' Emanuel Brites 66'