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Brazil: Cearense U20 - Playoff
Brazil: Cearense U20 - Playoff
01.08.2026 18:00 UTC
01.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Not started

Brazil: Cearense U20 - Playoff

Joinville U20 - Carlos Renaux U20

Football
Joinville U20
Joinville U20
- : -
Not started
C
Carlos Renaux U20
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Joinville U20 — 60%

Pure model vs market (1 · Joinville U20): model 46% · market 61% Δ −15 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Joinville U20 ✓ Pick60.1%
market61%
X · draw23.4%
market23%
2 · Carlos Renaux U2016.5%
market16%

Model estimate: win Joinville U20 60.1%, draw 23.4%, win Carlos Renaux U20 16.5%. Model favourite — Joinville U20.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Joinville U20 - Carlos Renaux U20 August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Joinville U20. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.50 / X 3.90 / 2 5.90

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.3%
1 ✓ Pick 61.0%
X 23.5%
2 15.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Catarinense U20
League table
Joinville U20
#912 ptsGP 173-3-1115:38
ARRAY
Carlos Renaux U20
#718 ptsGP 165-3-817:30
ARRAY
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Joinville U20
W-D-L 3-1-6 Scored 0.70 Conceded 1.91
Carlos Renaux U20
W-D-L 3-3-4 Scored 1.21 Conceded 1.51

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Market 1 61.0% @ 1.50 / X 23.5% @ 3.90 / 2 15.5% @ 5.90
Match center

Joinville U20 - Carlos Renaux U20

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line
More needed
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Joinville U20 61.0% 60.1% market and model agree
Draw 23.5% 23.4% draw risk
Carlos Renaux U20 15.6% 16.5%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 60.1% / 23.4% / 16.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,601 / 1,559 Fortaleza U20 / Ferroviario U20
RD 188 / 225 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,225-1,977 / 1,109-2,009 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.85 market consensus · no value · model 16.5%
X 3.89 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.50 market consensus · no value · model 60.1%
Double chance
12 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 76.6%
1X 1.07 market consensus · no value · model 83.5%
X2 2.30 market consensus · no value · model 39.9%
Handicap
2 +1 1.85 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.85 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.72 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.01 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.72 58.1%
yes 2.01 49.8%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet
12 1.18 84.8%
1x 1.07 93.5%
x2 2.30 43.5%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.36 73.5%
Under 0.5 2.91 34.4%

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Leon
1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1%
1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1%
Match center
Joinville U20
W
25.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Cearense U20 - Playoff
Joinville U20 1:0 Ferroviario U20
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
3 Points
Carlos Renaux U20
L
25.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Cearense U20 - Playoff
Carlos Renaux U20 0:1 Fortaleza U20Fortaleza U20
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
0.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
0 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyJoinville U20 - Carlos Renaux U20

Joinville U20
1 matches total
Carlos Renaux U20
Joinville U20: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Carlos Renaux U20: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Fortaleza U20 1:0 (25.07 16:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (1:0, 25.07 16:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 1

Match history

25.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Cearense U20 - Playoff
Fortaleza U20
1:0
Ferroviario U20