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Brazil: Copa Governo (Sergipe) Standings
Brazil: Copa Governo (Sergipe) Standings
29.07.2026 17:00 UTC
29.07.2026 17:00 UTC
Not started

Brazil: Copa Governo (Sergipe) Standings

Atletiko Gloriense - Desportiva Aracaju

Football
A
Atletiko Gloriense
- : -
Not started
D
Desportiva Aracaju
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Atletiko Gloriense — 54%

Pure model vs market (1 · Atletiko Gloriense): model 44% · market 43% Δ +1 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Atletiko Gloriense53.5%
X · draw24.0%
2 · Desportiva Aracaju22.5%

Model estimate: win Atletiko Gloriense 53.5%, draw 24.0%, win Desportiva Aracaju 22.5%. Model favourite — Atletiko Gloriense.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Atletiko Gloriense (odds1.74) Score 2:1 confidence 54%
  • • Model backs Atletiko Gloriense: probability 54% vs 58% on the line (odds 1.74)
  • • no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atletiko Gloriense - Desportiva Aracaju July 29, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Atletiko Gloriense. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.20 / X 3.48 / 2 3.25

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 43.3%
X 27.4%
2 29.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 29.07.2026 17:00 UTC
Match center

Atletiko Gloriense - Desportiva Aracaju

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Atletiko Gloriense 54.1% 53.5% market and model agree
Draw 24.1% 24.0% draw risk
Desportiva Aracaju 21.8% 22.5%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 53.5% / 24.0% / 22.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Atletiko Gloriense / Desportiva Aracaju
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.03 market consensus · no value · model 22.5%
X 3.37 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.13 market consensus · value +14.1% · model 53.5%
Double chance
12 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 76.0%
1X 1.34 market consensus · weak value +3.9% · model 77.5%
X2 1.57 market consensus · no value · model 46.5%
Handicap
2 +1 1.46 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.24 market consensus · line only
1 -1 2.60 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.58 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.74 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.96 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.17 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.61 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.17 46.1%
yes 1.61 62.1%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.25 80.0% 1.29 77.5%
1x 1.32 75.8% 1.36 73.5%
x2 1.54 64.9% 1.60 62.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.58 38.8%
X 2.13 47.0%
3.95 25.3%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.72 58.1%
Under 1 2.00 50.0%