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Brazil. Copa Governo do Estado de Sergipe. Group stage
Brazil. Copa Governo do Estado de Sergipe. Group stage
01.08.2026 19:00 UTC
01.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Not started

Brazil. Copa Governo do Estado de Sergipe. Group stage

Desportiva Aracaju - America SE

Football
D
Desportiva Aracaju
- : -
Not started
A
America SE

Desportiva Aracaju go head-to-head with America SE on August 1, 2026 in the Brazil. Copa Governo do Estado de Sergipe. Group stage.

Recent form (W-D-L): Desportiva Aracaju 0-1-0, America SE 0-0-1. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Desportiva Aracaju — 63%

Pure model vs market (1 · Desportiva Aracaju): model 49% · market 65% Δ −16 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Desportiva Aracaju ✓ Pick62.9%
market65%
X · draw24.4%
market24%
2 · America SE12.7%
market11%

Model estimate: win Desportiva Aracaju 62.9%, draw 24.4%, win America SE 12.7%. Model favourite — Desportiva Aracaju.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Desportiva Aracaju (odds1.42) Score 2:0 confidence 63%
  • • Model backs Desportiva Aracaju: probability 63% vs 70% on the line (odds 1.42)
  • • no edge over the line (-7 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Desportiva Aracaju - America SE August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Desportiva Aracaju. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.44 / X 3.90 / 2 8.40

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.0%
1 ✓ Pick 64.9%
X 24.0%
2 11.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Desportiva Aracaju 1 : 2 America SE
13.57
X3.16
21.99

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Market 1 64.9% @ 1.44 / X 24.0% @ 3.90 / 2 11.1% @ 8.40
Match center

Desportiva Aracaju - America SE

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Desportiva Aracaju 63.8% 62.9% market and model agree
Draw 24.5% 24.4% draw risk
America SE 11.7% 12.7%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 62.9% / 24.4% / 12.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,519 / 1,413 Desportiva Aracaju / America SE
RD 291 / 275 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 937-2,101 / 863-1,962 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.87 market consensus · no value · model 12.7%
X 3.74 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.42 market consensus · no value · model 62.9%
Double chance
12 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 75.6%
1X 1.04 market consensus · no value · model 87.3%
X2 2.60 market consensus · no value · model 37.1%
Handicap
2 +1 1.93 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.77 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.46 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.48 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.41 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.70 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.41 70.9%
yes 2.70 37.0%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.20 83.3% 1.21 82.6%
1x 1.02 98.0% 1.06 94.3%
x2 2.50 40.0% 2.70 37.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.06 48.5%
X 1.95 51.3%
8.90 11.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.54 64.9%
Under 0.5 2.32 43.1%
Match center
Desportiva Aracaju
D
29.07 17:00 UTC Brazil: Copa Governo (Sergipe) Standings
Desportiva Aracaju 0:0 Atletiko Gloriense
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
0.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
1 Points
America SE
L
29.07 21:00 UTC Brazil: Copa Governo (Sergipe) Standings
America SE 0:1 Lagarto
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
0.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
0 Points