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Brazil: Piauiense U20 - Playoff
Brazil: Piauiense U20 - Playoff
30.07.2026 19:00 UTC
30.07.2026 19:00 UTC
Not started

Brazil: Piauiense U20 - Playoff

Fluminense Piaui U20 - River Atletico Piaui U20

Football
F
Fluminense Piaui U20
- : -
Not started
R
River Atletico Piaui U20
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Fluminense Piaui U20 — 64%

Pure model vs market (1 · Fluminense Piaui U20): model 59% · market 65% Δ −6 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Fluminense Piaui U20 ✓ Pick64.3%
market65%
X · draw20.7%
market21%
2 · River Atletico Piaui U2014.9%
market14%

Model estimate: win Fluminense Piaui U20 64.3%, draw 20.7%, win River Atletico Piaui U20 14.9%. Model favourite — Fluminense Piaui U20.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Fluminense Piaui U20 - River Atletico Piaui U20 July 30, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Fluminense Piaui U20. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.46 / X 4.40 / 2 6.80

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9%
1 ✓ Pick 64.7%
X 21.5%
2 13.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 30.07.2026 19:00 UTC
Match center

Fluminense Piaui U20 - River Atletico Piaui U20

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line
More needed
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Fluminense Piaui U20 64.7% 64.3% market and model agree
Draw 20.8% 20.7% draw risk
River Atletico Piaui U20 14.5% 14.9%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 64.3% / 20.7% / 14.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,852 / 1,546 Fluminense Piaui U20 / River Atletico Piaui U20
RD 206 / 192 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,439-2,265 / 1,161-1,930 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.15 market consensus · no value · model 14.9%
X 4.39 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.42 market consensus · no value · model 64.3%
Double chance
12 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 79.3%
1X 1.10 market consensus · no value · model 85.1%
X2 2.45 market consensus · no value · model 35.7%
Handicap
2 0 4.30 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.17 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.61 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.15 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.86 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.84 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.86 53.8%
yes 1.84 54.4%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet
12 1.16 86.2%
1x 1.10 90.9%
x2 2.45 40.8%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.86 53.8%
X 2.37 42.2%
6.70 14.9%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.62 61.7%
Over 1.5 2.23 44.8%
Under 1 2.16 46.3%
Under 1.5 1.58 63.3%
Match center
Fluminense Piaui U20
W
25.07 17:00 UTC Brazil: Piauiense U20 - Playoff
Fluminense Piaui U20 5:1 Ferroviario-PI U20
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
5.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
3 Points
River Atletico Piaui U20
D
27.07 17:00 UTC Brazil: Piauiense U20 - Playoff
River Atletico Piaui U20 1:1 Komersial U20
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
1 Points