What does PropickAI predict for Marek vs Nesebar?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Marek. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Marek vs Nesebar?

Live odds for Marek vs Nesebar from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

AI verdict

AI pick Marek win probability ~53% best odds 1.69

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Marek. Full breakdown below.

Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →

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Bulgaria. Division 2

02.09.2026 14:00 UTC

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction

02.09.2026 14:00 UTC

Not started

Bulgaria. Division 2

Marek vs Nesebar — Football prediction

Football

Stadium Albena Stadium

Marek

- : -

Not started

Nesebar

Marek host Nesebar in football, in Bulgaria. Division 2, on 2 September 2026. Our Glicko-2 rating model leans to Marek: roughly 53% to win. Sportsbook prices (1 book) put that result at roughly 61%. The model puts the chance of a draw at 20%.

Latest form: Marek 1 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost; Nesebar 1 won, 1 drawn and 1 lost. On the Glicko scale it is 1595 for Marek against 1559 for Nesebar - a gap of 36 points.

Our model is a touch more cautious on the favourite than the market. Model confidence in the favourite is low. That is a 8-point gap to the market. The match is close, and the model flags no clear safer edge. Key markers: an edge of 36 Glicko rating points, the model's 53% for Marek. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Marek — 53%

1 · Marek53.4%

X · draw19.8%

2 · Nesebar26.8%

Model estimate: win Marek 53.4%, draw 19.8%, win Nesebar 26.8%. Model favourite — Marek.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick strong

Double chance — Marek or draw 1.13

Model confidence 81% ~82% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Marek - Nesebar September 2, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Marek. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.69 / X 3.49 / 2 4.82

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.0% 3 books · best price +1.2%

1 54.0%

X 26.8%

2 19.2%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Model O/U (market-implied)

Total 2.50 3 books

Over 2.50 43.0%

Under 2.50 57.0%

Market-implied probability from the frozen pre-kickoff consensus line — reference, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Second League

League table

Marek

#117 ptsGP 62-1-36:6

Nesebar

#610 ptsGP 63-1-213:9

Best price across 2 books

1 1.53 Dafabet

X 3.60 Dafabet

2 5.60 Dafabet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

Marek

W-D-L 4-3-3 Scored 1.09 Conceded 0.75 xG 1.08 xGA 1.30

Nesebar

W-D-L 4-2-4 Scored 1.78 Conceded 1.36 xG 0.98 xGA 1.52

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)

Marek

Rating 1538

Nesebar

Rating 1512

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Marek

54%

1.69

Draw

27%

3.49

Nesebar

19%

4.82

Total

Over 2.5

44%

2.15

Under 2.5

56%

1.74

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Match center

Stadium Albena Stadium

Start 02.09.2026 14:00 UTC

Market 1 54.5% @ 1.69 / X 26.4% @ 3.49 / 2 19.1% @ 4.82

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Marek 53%

💹 Market Marek 54%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

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Match center

Marek - Nesebar

Form 2/3 recent games

Market 3 model / bookmakers

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Marek 61.1% 53.4% market and model agree

Draw 24.0% 19.8% draw risk

Nesebar 14.9% 26.8%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 53.4% / 19.8% / 26.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,595 / 1,559 Marek / Nesebar

RD 249 / 236 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,097-2,093 / 1,086-2,031 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.74 market consensus · no value · model 26.8%

X 3.41 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 53.4%

Double chance

12 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 80.2%

1X 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 73.2%

X2 2.00 market consensus · no value · model 46.6%

Total

Over 2.5 2.08 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.65 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.73 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.99 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Leon
no	1.73 57.8%
yes	1.99 50.3%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity
12	1.23 81.3%	1.27 78.7%
1x	1.11 90.1%	1.15 87.0%
x2	1.95 51.3%	2.04 49.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	2.13 47.0%
X	2.21 45.3%
	5.30 18.9%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 0.5	1.36 73.5%
Over 1.5	2.89 34.6%
Under 0.5	2.89 34.6%
Under 1.5	1.36 73.5%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-0-0, avg 1.5 gls

2025-05-17 · Marek Dupnitsa 1:0 Nesebyr

2024-11-23 · Marek Dupnitsa 2:0 Nesebyr

Source: ruscore

Odds · 1 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.54 (Winline) · X 3.65 (Winline) · 2 5.6 (Winline)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Winline	1.54	3.65	5.6

Source: ruscore · line comparison

Marek

L W

07.08 15:45 UTC Bulgaria: Second League Standings

Marek 0:1 Etyr

25.07 15:00 UTC Bulgaria: Second League Standings

Marek 1:0 Fratria

1 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

0.5 Scored

0.5 Conceded

3 Points

Nesebar

W D L

10.08 15:00 UTC Bulgaria: Second League Standings

Nesebar 2:0 Dobrudzha

04.08 15:30 UTC Bulgaria: Second League Standings

Nesebar 0:0 Montana

25.07 13:30 UTC Bulgaria: Second League Standings

Nesebar 1:5 Etyr

1 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.7 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head history: Marek - Nesebar

Marek

0 matches total

Nesebar

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Marek vs Nesebar — Football prediction

AI match prediction Marek - Nesebar September 2, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Model O/U (market-implied)

Statistics and model

Forecast by market

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