Bulgaria: Second League Standings
Montana take on Nesebar on August 4, 2026 in the Bulgaria: Second League Standings.
Recent form (W-D-L): Montana 0-1-4, Nesebar 3-1-1. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 73% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Montana — 73%
Pure model vs market (1 · Montana): model 58% · market 74% Δ −16 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Montana 72.9%, draw 18.7%, win Nesebar 8.3%. Model favourite — Montana.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Montana.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 4.90 20.4% | 1.49 67.1% |
| yes | 1.13 88.5% | 2.44 41.0% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.09 91.7% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.06 94.3% |
| 1x | — | — | 1.08 92.6% |
| x2 | 3.30 30.3% | 3.70 27.0% | 9.00 11.1% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.73 57.8% | |
| X | 2.31 43.3% |
| 10.10 9.9% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.80 55.6% |
| Under 1 | 1.90 52.6% |
Full head-to-head historyMontana - Nesebar
The Montana - Nesebar breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
