Bulgaria: First League Standings
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 CSKA Sofia — 73%
Pure model vs market (1 · CSKA Sofia): model 58% · market 74% Δ −16 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win CSKA Sofia 72.8%, draw 18.2%, win Dunav Ruse 9.0%. Model favourite — CSKA Sofia.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.47 68.0% |
| yes | 2.56 39.1% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.12 89.3% | 1.14 87.7% |
| 1x | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| x2 | 3.33 30.0% | 3.50 28.6% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.68 59.5% | |
| X | 2.54 39.4% |
| 11.00 9.1% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.71 58.5% |
| Under 1 | 2.03 49.3% |
CSKA Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Slaviya Sofiya
Dunav Ruse
Full head-to-head historyCSKA Sofia - Dunav Ruse
The CSKA Sofia - Dunav Ruse breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
