Bulgaria: First League Standings
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Ludogorets — 68%
Pure model vs market (1 · Ludogorets): model 58% · market 70% Δ −12 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Ludogorets 67.9%, draw 20.0%, win Botev Vratsa 12.0%. Model favourite — Ludogorets.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.63 61.4% |
| yes | 2.19 45.7% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.15 87.0% | 1.16 86.2% |
| 1x | 1.03 97.1% | 1.04 96.2% |
| x2 | 2.85 35.1% | 3.10 32.3% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.82 55.0% | |
| X | 2.43 41.2% |
| 8.30 12.1% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.71 58.5% |
| Under 1 | 2.03 49.3% |
Dunav Ruse
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
TsSKA 1948
Cherno More
Full head-to-head historyLudogorets - Botev Vratsa
The Ludogorets - Botev Vratsa breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
