Septemvri Sofia meet CSKA Sofia on August 9, 2026 in the Bulgaria. League 1.
Recent form (W-D-L): Septemvri Sofia 1-1-3, CSKA Sofia 3-2-0. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
2CSKA Sofia — 61%
Pure model vs market (2 · CSKA Sofia): model 45% · market 66%Δ −21 ppmodel estimates below the market
61%2
1 · Septemvri Sofia16.9%
market12%
X · draw22.0%
market22%
2 · CSKA Sofia ✓ Pick61.0%
market66%
Model estimate: win Septemvri Sofia 16.9%, draw 22.0%, win CSKA Sofia 61.0%. Model favourite — CSKA Sofia.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
2CSKA Sofia (odds1.51)Score 0:2confidence 55%
•Model backs TsSKA Sofiya: probability 55% vs 66% on the line (odds 1.51)
•no edge over the line (-12 pp) — informational only
•Expected score 0:2.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
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Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Septemvri Sofia - CSKA Sofia August 9, 2026
Football math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: CSKA Sofia. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 8.50 / X 3.40 / 2 1.53
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⚽
SStats data
Statistics and model
First League
League table
Septemvri Sofia
#121 ptsGP 30-1-22:6
CSKA Sofia
#67 ptsGP 32-1-05:3
Best price
across 14 books
18.00Bet365
X4.52Pinnacle
21.50Unibet
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Implied probabilities from the Fonbet live line (1/odds, normalized). For reference.
LIVE
Match momentum (live)
0:037'
Septemvri SofiaCSKA Sofia
38Attacks27
28Dangerous attacks38
1Shots on target2
56%Control (ball-safe)49%
1Corners1
4Fouls5
Live momentum from Sportradar (attacks/shots/control). Updates during the match.
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Match center
StadiumVasil Levski (Sofiya, Bulgaria)Assistent: Martin Margaritov (Bulgaria) 0' 45' 90'
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Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Septemvri Sofia15.9%16.9%
Draw22.0%22.0%draw risk
CSKA Sofia62.1%61.0%market and model agree
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P216.9% / 22.0% / 61.0%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating1,383 / 1,618
Septemvri Sofia / CSKA Sofia
RD249 / 234
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD886-1,881 / 1,149-2,087
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
21.53
Fonbet · no value · model 61.0%
X3.40
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
18.50
Fonbet · no value · model 16.9%
Double chance
121.30
Fonbet · no value · model 78.0%
1X2.40
Fonbet · no value · model 39.0%
X21.08
Fonbet · no value · model 83.1%
Handicap
2 -0.51.50
market consensus · line only
2 -11.67
market consensus · line only
2 +12.02
Fonbet · line only
2 01.10
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.53.20
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.51.30
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No1.25
Fonbet · line only
Yes3.45
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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